Poll: Which of Utah's remaining games most concerns you?
by Ute in DC on Oct 20, 2008 12:01 PM MDT
8 comments
Utah has four regular season games remaining. Since it's a Bye week and we don't have a lot to talk about, I feel comfortable speculating a bit about the Utes' remaining games.
Nov. 1 @ New Mexico - Utah's next game is against the Lobos who always seem to bring their best game against the Utes. The last time the two played in Albuquerque, the Utes owned a 24-3 lead late in the second quarter, only to lose 34-31.
As a ranked team, the Utes lost to the Lobos 47-35 in 2003, to give Urban Meyer his only conference loss during his two year tenure at the U. Also noteworthy is the 1996 game where Utah entered the game 8-0 and ranked #8 in the nation, only to lose to the Lobos.
Nov. 6 vs. TCU - This game is a Thursday night game. The Horned Frogs are now ranked #15 in the nation after thoroughly whipping BYU last Thursday.
Since TCU joined the Mountain West Conference just over three years ago, Utah has posted a record of 2-1 against the Frogs. This is a home game for the Utes, but TCU fields a quick, hard-hitting defense.
Nov. 15 @ San Diego St. - San Diego is pretty bad this year going 1-6 and 0-3 in the conference. Their lone win is against a pathetic Idaho Vandals team and among their losses is FCS team Cal Poly.
The Utes should be able to handle the Aztecs easily, but this has all the makings of a "Trap Game." It is sandwiched between the TCU and BYU games so the Utes could easily overlook the Aztecs. It's on the road and the Utes could play down to the Aztecs level.
Nov. 22 vs. BYU - So the Cougars were thrashed last week by the Horned Frogs, but BYU is still a winning program and it's still the Holy War. I don't think I need to remind anyone what Kyle Whittingham's record is against Bronco Mendenhall or what the outcome of the last two games was.
If the Utes manage to enter this game undefeated, BYU would like nothing more than to hand Utah their first loss.
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I hate trap games.
I really think we are the best team and SHOULD win all four of these games. I am afriad we will suffer from mental slips and not be able to snatch a win out of the claws of defeat.
New Mexico is the real trap game. I don’t think recent history will allow us to over look them. I expect a Wyoming like focus on them, and performance against them.
I think we will find out the most about our team in the TCU game, which could be for the conference title and the lead for the BCS AQ #3. If we deserve a top 10 ranking we need to play like a top 10 team. TCU played one of those and lost by 25, and it could have been worse. A comanding victory in this game could have serious benifits for us. TCU will be playing for a BCS spot, however, and they could well earn one with a win.
If BYU wins the remainder of their schedule between now and then they can climb back up to where a win in the Holy War could get them into an Automatic Qualification, with a Boise State loss. The Holy War could still end up being for a BCS bowl.
New Mexico.
But mostly because it’s a game we should win and it’s on the road.
BYU & TCU will be tough, but they’re both at home and this team seems to play extremely well at home. New Mexico, though, is a bit of a concern because of past history and the fact they seem to be improved over where they were at the start of the season.
Of course, it also comes after a bye-week, which gives Utah a chance to really prepare against them and they should be ready for it.
But I agree with utesfan100, if Utah gets by New Mexico, TCU will be a huge statement game, since the Frogs will be highly ranked.
UNM Lobos
These guys are tougher than their record indicates. They looked good against BYU (again, the score there was not very indicative of how close the game was), and look what they did to SDSU last week. 70-7?! That’s scary. I know the Utes are leagues above the Aztecs, but even so, putting up 70 points is impressive.
I think the Utes will handle BYU and TCU at Rice-Eccles without too much trouble (IMO the Horned Frogs are the toughter test there), and the Aztecs should be a cakewalk.
TCU
New Mexico freaks me out easily because of recent playing there but it is a bye week before and I know Kyle won’t let our team look over them. I know UNM is really good, but I think we should get the W.
TCU scares me because of the short week and the game is on Thursday and look at what happened to ranked teams on Thursdays this year. Even #1 went down on a Thursday game. All I hope for is that there is another ranked opponent playing someone that same day. Although, it is a bit defferent with both teams probably entering ranked. TCU tho, didn’t want to beat us as much as they wanted to dominate the TDS. We will just have to see what happens leading up to this game.
SDSU should be easy, as long as we don’t overlook them…
The TDS will be a good tough game especially if we enter still undefeated. But I think if we can beat TCU we can beat the TDS also.
My vote goes to TCU tho, as the most concerning game.
GO UTES!!
Everyone but SDSU . . .
I figure we could win out, and we could go 9-3.
I am hoping for 10-2 or better. Cougs losing helped them for their next several games, short week to prepare for TCU bothers me as well.
I think we’ll take NM and SDSU but the other two?
It’s a wash, could go either way.
If we are going to assign odds...
I am addicted to such things…
Percent chance of a win:
New Mexico: 75%
TCU: 65%
SDSU: 95%
BYU: 65%
Chance for given record:
12-0: 30% (BCS AQ)
11-1: 44% (See Below)
10-2: 22%
9-3: 4%
8-4: 0.2%
Even with 1 loss we have an outside chance at a BCS Bowl. It would take Boise State losing one and either Ohio State losing two or th team that beats us losing one. Boise State still has San Jose State, Nevada and Fresno State. Ohio State still has Penn State, Nothwestern, Illinois and Michigan.
Altogether I think we have a near 40% chance at a BCS Bowl this year. This goes up, in order of significance, if Boise State, Ohio State, TCU or BYU lose this weekend.
Mew Mexico
we must beat the lobos on the road first before we can think about any of those other games
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