Statistically speaking...
by JazzyUte on Nov 11, 2009 3:59 PM MST
in Football
18 comments
Want to get a real idea of how big/little of an underdog Utah is? Look no further than the statistics. I think, generally, they paint a pretty accurate picture for conference games (they're less impressive when trying to factor out of conference contests). In this regard, Utah might not be entirely overwhelmed.
Here is a quick breakdown of the major statistical categories and whether either team has a significant edge.
| #14 Utah | #4 TCU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 224.4 YPG |
216.4 YPG |
|
| Rushing Offense | 186.9 YPG |
242.1 YPG |
 |
| Total Offense | 411.3 YPG |
458.6 YPG |
|
| Scoring Offense | 29.1 PPG |
37.4 YPG |
|
| Rush Defense | 129.8 YPG |
91.7 YPG |
|
| Pass Defense | 169.9 YPG |
150.9 YPG |
|
| Total Defense | 299.3 YPG |
240.6 YPG |
|
| Scoring Defense | 16.4 PPG |
11.2 PPG |
|
| Special Teams | Field Goals |
Punt Returns |
As you can see, based on the statistics, it's actually pretty close. TCU does hold a significant edge on the offensive end, but it's far more equal in regard to the defensive numbers. In fact, the only defensive statistic that TCU swamps Utah in is rush defense and even that isn't entirely bad.
The difference, of course, is on the offensive side of the ball. The Utes have struggled there, but even then, they're not entirely bad. The only aspect of their offense that is quite a bit worse than last year's is points per game and I think against TCU, you can pretty much throw those numbers out the window.
To compare, Utah had the edge in only one category last year (passing offense). Every other category was either won by TCU or essentially a tie. I consider a tie numbers that are within the realm of each other. In my mind, there isn't much difference in giving up 19-more yards through the air. Though maybe some of you will disagree with me on that one.
What this tells me is that, like last year, TCU is statistically the better team. But they're not 21-points better than Utah. Across the board, they may have a slight edge, but that's about it. Everything else is fairly even and suggests Saturday's game could come down to the intangibles. If that's the case, I like Utah's chances.
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I think Kyle acutally grades his secondary on Pass Efficiency Defense
It’s a more useful stat than Pass Defense, because Pass Defense depends a lot on the situation. But that doesn’t really change the analysis, as TCU is 7th (95.38) and Utah is 12th (99.70)
Interesting to note that TCU leads the MWC in almost every category on both sides of the ball. The only non-TCU categories are:
Rushing yards (AF leads of course, TCU is 2nd, Utah is 3rd)
Pass defense (AF actually leads this one, TCU is 2nd, Utah is 3rd)
Passing efficiency (BYU leads, TCU is 2nd, Utah is 3rd)
Turnover margin (AF leads, TCU is 3rd, Utah is 5th)
Sacks allowed (AF leads of course, TCU is 2nd, Utah is 3rd)
Tackles for loss (Utah leads, TCU is 5th)
Passing yards (BYU leads, TCU is 6th, Utah is 4th)
Net punting (BYU leads, TCU is 8th, Utah is 5th)
I’m expecting a tough game. If Utah plays perfectly and forced TCU to play the pass, Utah will win by 7-10. If Utah makes any mistakes at all we probably lose by 10-14.
Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.
The thing that has be confident is the fact TCU was leading most categories last year.
As I mentioned, there was only one category where Utah had a significant edge last year (passing offense). Beyond that, TCU either led in every other category, or it was essentially even.
Utah won.
On paper, maybe TCU should’ve beat the Utes by 10-17 points.
Thankfully, the games aren’t played on paper. And I actually believe it’s rather even if you look at it from a statistical point, though TCU does have an advantage.
Our numbers are a bit skewed with the quarterback change.
I think our offense has been, and will be much more efficient with Wynn.
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by Michael Rueckert on Nov 11, 2009 6:07 PM MST reply actions
Was/Is it the QB change or the OC-on-the-field-Roderick-in-the-box swap?…the world may never know.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Nov 11, 2009 6:09 PM MST up reply actions
Or is it a bit of both?
I’m more inclined to believe it is a mix of both. I had really lost confidence in Schramm.
I agree, we are built to run a true spread, not whatever Schramn was doing.
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by Michael Rueckert on Nov 11, 2009 6:27 PM MST up reply actions
True
But note that all “spread” teams are really struggling more to crank out yards (see for example Florida).
The spread is being picked apart by defenses just like any other offense is, need to add a few wrinkles at times.
I agree.
I think our offense is more dynamic because we’re not pigeonholed the lack of a down field threat. Cain was money on those short passes, but once defenses wised up to that, he struggled.
Wynn opens the field up just a bit more than Cain and keeps the defense honest by forcing them to defend both the down field pass and those short slants.
I also felt like Wynn had no hesitation to throw it, whereas Cain seemed to debate the throw for a second or so. Wynn guns it in there, and most of his throws are lasers, which is nice since it makes it that much harder for opposing players to make the pick.
In spring ball, Wynn was touted as the best passer, and Cain as the best runner. Right now we need that additional facet of the passing game since, like Jazzy said, most teams have keyed in on our short/medium passing game. EW3 adds the run dimension that we need, but Wynn really brings the offense into balance because of his throwing ability.
The biggest factor I see in deciding if we win on Saturday or not, is if the O-line can get off to a good/great start and really take it to the TCU front 7…something inside me is saying that the reason the line has been struggling early in the last couple games is because some degree of prep time has been reserved each week for TCU…but who knows.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Nov 11, 2009 6:26 PM MST up reply actions
Wynn seems much more confident
I love when he says “I just wanna go out slingin”
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by Michael Rueckert on Nov 11, 2009 6:28 PM MST up reply actions
That's why I like him on the field over Cain at this point
Not to take anything away from big T, I just think Wynn has a handle on the offense and is in a position to go balls out the rest of the year.
Whit’s own words: “We have the whole playbook open now” (or something similar…can’t fact check right now)
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Nov 11, 2009 8:38 PM MST up reply actions
Deep ball is so important
Have to spread the field vertically as well as horizontally.
You play right into defenses stacking the box and blitzing if you can’t go deep realistically. The fact that we are winning at all is a testimony to our talent, but this team could be much better.
If you've got it Jazzy...
I’d like to see a rundown between the Clemson D and the AF D…and maybe the Oregon D just to see the comparison between what the two teams have faced this year and their production.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Nov 11, 2009 6:12 PM MST reply actions
I looked at Oregon and AFA's offenses
to get an idea of how Utah’s defense will look against TCU.
From a statistical standpoint, Oregon and TCU are very similar. Top ten nationally in all rushing categories (per carry, attempts per game, yards per game, rushes that result in a first down) and in other offensive categories (time of possession and scoring offense). Oregon is worse through the air (98th vs. 66th) and on 3rd down (84th vs. 48th), but better in turnover margin (28th vs 42nd). AFA’s rushing attack is 4th in the nation, but they obviously don’t throw the ball as much or score as many points.
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With that comparison, I am more encouraged, since we went into Autzen (which I would rank much harder a venue than TCU’s stadium (Amon-Carter? I forgot the name)) and were right there till the last drive.
With Wynn, i give us a better chance…in fact I think we might win that game if we played again because of the extra dimension that Wynn adds to the O.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Nov 12, 2009 10:04 AM MST up reply actions
Just in case you don't see it
Comparing TCU and Utah vs. teams with a winning record
St Louis Game Time: Let's Go Blues!
Block U: a blog about the University of Utah
You can find me on the twitter: @achidester
Thanks BO
I see that we pretty much held both to season averages on D (with the obvious exception of AF throwing on us).
My question was more about how our D stacks up against Clemson and AF’s D, and the breakdown of those 2 games against TCU…I might have some extra time today to figure it out, and if I do, I’ll post it here.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Nov 12, 2009 10:03 AM MST up reply actions
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