Who Shows up, Jekyl or Hyde?

Calfornia shows a dual personality that indicates they are inconsistent, much like their bowl popponent Utah, only more so.

Maryland is a team that sometimes lives up to its potential, sometimes tanks.  California was touted as one of the nations best teams before the season started.  Consequently, the 52-13 shellacking the Golden Bears hung on the Terps wasn't entirely surprising, but it did indicate that expectations for the Bears were accurate and that this was a team that would compete for PAC and national honors.  California racked up the yards and converted over half of their first downs in crushing the Maryland Terrapins.  Their second game they destroyed an outmatched Eastern Washington (FCS, or D-II) team, then visited an improving Minnesota team and won convincingly 35-21 (Minnesota beat Air Force this year for comparison).  In each game they had significant advantages in rushing yardage, first downs, and total yards.  Their defensive side seemed to be giving a potent offense opportunities—a balanced, explosive California team was ranked sixth nationally and talk of their playing in, or changing the complexion of, the national title was beginning to make the College Football TV circuit. 

Then the potion Dr. Jekyll had devised wore off, and the beast seemed to disappear.  What loomed as a clash of Western Titans in surging Oregon and the proven Cal team turned into a laugher as Oregon ran will-nilly over Cal, blowing them out 42-3.  USC was next and methodically dispatched them 30-3.  Five games, four of them laughers, and the Bears split them evenly with the Minnesota game having been more of a contest.  You simply could not display a more split personality than that.  

Utah, on the other hand, was blasted only once while being fully capable of winning at Oregon and really giving the game away to BYU.  Utah did not blow out quite as many opponents, but Cal settled into a more predictable pattern as well, being in closer games in conference until their final at Washington.  And at Washington, no one knows who was occupying the uniforms of the Golden Bears as they were absolutely destroyed 42-10.  Three blow out losses.  What does that mean for their bowl game?

Well, it means which Bears team will show up? 

Most prognostications hang on whether or not the superb Jahvid Best can recover fully and return to the lineup.  If he does, will he be himself?  If he is, look out.  He makes the entire team play better and he’s too fast to catch if you don’t wrap him up—something Utah sometimes fails to do.  I for one would like to see him play, Utah needs the incentive and the challenge—win or lose, you want to play their most capable performers. 

But the same could be said of Utah.  Have they found an identity which translates into a consistent and motivated team showing up for the game?  This is highly doubtful.

Both teams have won enough to come in with their heads up.  Both teams feel they have something to prove, with California likely to have a slightly larger chip on their shoulder, having lost to Utah the last time they played, having the season that was far more disappointing (Utah was considered to be mired in a rebuilding year, while California had conference and possibly national title aspirations). 

Similarities in style of play

Both teams can beat you with rush or the pass with statistical results for the season being almost identical (Utah = 2642 passing yards/2092 rushing yards; Cal = 2681 passing yards/2123 rushing yards).  You usually see Tedford’s name associated with his quarterbacks, however, his guys are able to make those throws because most defensive coordinators know the Golden Bears employ a power running game and you have to stop that first, leaving the QB at times to have his chances at one on one coverage.  This means that the game will be won or lost in the lines and in this regard we see two teams who will try to beat down their opponent with a power game and then break a big play against an exhausted defense.  Utah is used to, in fact seems to prefer, leaving the defensive backs “out on an island” alone.  In this regard Utah might have an edge, fielding a defense suited to fight Cal’s strengths. 

California’s Jahvid Best is well known, but his injury allowed Shane Vereen to pull in 830 yards with a 5.1 per carry average.  If best plays, California will have two sets of extremely capable legs to come at Utah with and that, not simply Best’s talent (though his 6.1 yards per carry is quite good) is what should concern Utah fans the most.

California’s defense favors the 3-4 set, the onus being on their linebackers to come up and close out the plays.  Bet the farm that the pressure applied by three BYU lineman will be carefully scrutinized by Cal’s defensive coordinator.  If Cal blitzes two backers it will create problems, especially if they come from the same side. 

Keys to the game:

Utah Offensively

Utah has to get Wynn moving in the pocket, if he stands static he is dead when they blitz.  They have to move that line and get the ball into the hands of receivers and tight ends on the linebackers.  If the Cal backers have to cover all day, blitzing will be mostly neutralized.  Misdirection might also help, and any tendencies to blitz we might want to try sweeps on the opposite side.  Continue to throw deep, whether you hit it or not make them play honest, don’t allow them to stay packed into the box up front.  Outside speed with receivers might open it up.  If they leave that middle open at ten yards, throw that quick slant.  Attack their D, don’t wait to see what they give you—they were ranked 66th nationally, we should be able to move the ball.  In the 3-4, the lineman often try to plug hole and let the linebacker sod the real cleaning up.  Move the lineman out, beat on them, wear them down.  Attack the line.  We really only showcase one back, when Eddie Wide is in they will key on him.  Spread the ball around baby.

Utah Defensively

Disrupt them, do not allow them to get into any flow at all.  Stack the box, take away the run as much as possible and put faith in your corners.  Blitz early and often to keep Riley (189/346 17 TDs and 6 interceptions) on his toes.  His last 4 games he has not hit 60% completions.  He appears to be streaky, keep on him—he’s had some terrible games (in the back to back Oregon and USC games he was a combined 27-71).  Beat Riley up early and hope to capitalize on that  If Best plays, hit him as hard as you can and wrap him up.  If his injury has made him tentative at all, he’ll show it.  Rotate in D lineman and be aggressive all night. 

Intangibles

Utah simply must reduce the number and severity of its penalties.  Cut those in say half and they very well could have gone 11-1 regardless of their coaching and QB issues. 

Coaching Matchup?

Both these guys consistently win more games than they lose and while Tedford (5-1) has only lost one bowl game (clearly he prepares well for bowls, like Whittingham does), it was a terrible showing with a highly rated Cal (4th nationally) being molested 45-31 by a 7-4 Texas Tech team.