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Football for Geeks


A mathematical proof that Utah wins Nov 6th....

Here is the math of Utah beating TCU Nov 6th.

TCU has a slight edge in Total Offensiive Yards and Total Defensive Yards..

TCU is ranked 11th Nationally in Offense with 481.67 yds/game
TCU is ranked 1st Nationally in Defense with 230.17 yds/game
Utah is ranked 29th Nationally in Offense with 438.20 yds/game
Utah is ranked 10th Nationally in Defense with 267.00 yds/game

BUT that's only half the picture... Utah's Special Teams make up the difference in yardage by giving Utah a shorter field...

Utah is ranked 1st Nationally in Kick-Off Returns with 31.17 yds/return
Utah is ranked 3rd Nationally in Punt Returns with 21.32 yds/return
TCU is ranked 15th Nationally in Kick-Off Returns with 25.93 yds/return
TCU is ranked 11th Nationally in Punt Returns with 15.25 yds/return

RESULTING in...

Utah having the 3rd best Scoring Offense in the Nation with 49 points per game vs.
TCU having the 2nd best Scoring Defense in the Nation with 10.33 pts allowed/game

and...

TCU having the 8th best Scoring Offense in the Nation with 41.67 points per game vs.
Utah having the 11th best Scoring Defense in the Nation with 15.6 pts allowed/game

So all things being balanced, Utah wins by virtue of home field advantage.

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