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10% chance of playing in the NCG?

The way I see it, we have about 4 possibilities of bowl games, 2 of which seem to be out of the Utes control.  So here are the factors, according to me, that will be determinative in our success or failure. 

I realistically think the National Championship will be between Oregon and the SEC Champion (Assuming that champion comes from the SEC West), and no matter how dominant Utah plays, I don't think we would get the nod over any of those teams. 

Ultimately, I give Utah about a 10% chance of playing in the NCG.  About a 50% chance of beating TCU, about a 40% chance of going undefeated (Note that this includes the TCU game - So it's a subset of the 50%), and about a 25% chance of everything else working out to make a 12-0 Utah team finish 2nd in the BCS polls.  It's unlikely, and I haven't even done the math, but it seems that all the math adds up to about 10% chance. 

Just did the math.  Exactly 10% chance based on those assumptions.

40% x 25% = 10% -- Easy enough. 

1. National Championship

How this happens:

  • We need to finish 12-0
  • We need the SEC East to win the SEC championship

Ironically, this seems to be the most simple, and not completely unlikely.  It is of course possible that Oregon loses, and Boise loses to Nevada, but ultimately, I think this is the magic formula for Utah getting into the national championship, likely playing Oregon. 

This scenario also lies on the following assumption:

  • We pass Boise St. in the BCS rankings, despite them finishing undefeated

I think this happens, although it is not a sure thing.  They still have some good football to play, including Hawaii and Nevada, who are not pushovers, and may push Boise past us in the rankings (if only barely).  This is also the scenario that enables Boise St. to play in the championship, obviously with them hoping for the assumption that BSU passes an undefeated Utah in the Polls. 

Either way, if TCU finishes 12-0 and the SEC East wins the conference, this is also the perfect storm that enables TCU to jump into the BCS National Championship game.  I think TCU for sure stays ahead of Boise, especially with Baylor looking like a decent win, and beating Utah on the road. 

 

2. Rose Bowl (Or some other BCS Bowl)

How this happens:

  • We finished 12-0
  • The SEC West wins the SEC championship, setting up a NCG with Auburn/Alabama and Oregon

With Oregon going to the NCG, that leaves the PAC-10 spot of the Rose-Bowl an At-Large selection, allowing for the highest ranked non-NCG team a chance to play in the Rose Bowl.  This scenario also relies on us being ranked above Boise St.

If, however, we do not jump ahead of Boise St., I think we still would get a BCS bowl, especially with what happened last year, likely being a Sugar Bowl against the loser of the Alabama/Auburn game, or the Fiesta Bowl.  Not really sure here.  This is getting into the minds of the individual bowl selection committees, which is always difficult to predict. 

 

3. Vegas Bowl

How this happens:

  • We finish 11-1 or 10-2

That's really about it.  Even if we finished 10-2, I still think we get this bowl, as I think the Poinsettia Bowl would probably want SDSU.  I think, even if BYU finished 6-6 this year, they would not be picked for the Vegas Bowl, and would likely get the New Mexico bowl or Humanitarian bowl or something.  Not really sure how they would treat a 6-6 BYU.  It's been a while since that was the case, and definitley in the recent past with our current bowl allegiances. 

 

4. Poinsettia Bowl

How this happens:

  • We finish 11-1 or 10-2
  • TCU loses 1
  • The Vegas Bowl, flying in the face of decency, picks BYU

This one is one I am totally unsure about.  And since it is probably the least desireable scenario, I don't want to really think about it. 

 

Anyway.  That's my thoughts.  Spewed out onto a fanpost. 

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