Why the Vegas oddsmakers are wrong

Only one thing you mention concerns me: the match-up. Boise State is a good team.

However, the rest doesn’t mean anything to me because they’re all interconnected. Wynn has been playing injured and therefore a reason why we’ve struggled down the stretch. I think Cain is a good quarterback and certainly better than an injured Wynn.

But where my confidence in this team comes from his the gameplanning of Kyle Whittingham. You didn’t mention that – but it’s equally, if not more important, than your first point and means everything in bowl games.

On paper, Alabama was a horrible match-up for the Utes in 2008. Their line alone gave me heartburn to the point where I knew it would take a near-flawless game from the Utes to pull out a victory.

But Whittingham had time to game plan for the Tide, their weaknesses and Utah’s strengths. Because of that, the Utes went no-huddle and pushed Alabama back on their heels for the entire first quarter. It worked, as they jetted out to a 21-0 point lead.

That put Alabama in a difficult spot because they were not a passing team. When a run-first team falls behind by three scores, it really puts the pressure on their defense to create turnovers to set up quick scores. Outside that one turnover by Johnson at the start of the second half – the Utes just didn’t allow that to happen.

You’d be surprised at how much time off game planning can quickly erase the talent & experience gap. That’s what I am banking on.

Here’s why:

Utah should have learned over the last 5 games of the season that an above average QB can pick apart the secondary. Moore is obviously above average. We need to keep the ball out of his hands.

Boise St. has struggled with the run over the past few games. Utah has 2 above average RB’s plus an offensive line that had 3 All MWC players, and 1 All American.

To me, this all translates to the coaching staff attempting to win the game through controlling the time of possession and hoping for a turnover and some key plays on special teams.

That should keep the score low & close enough that I think it will fall below the 17.5 line…although this game could go sideways quickly as well, so it’s not like I’m betting in favor of Utah either. I just don’t consider it a slam dunk amongst the bowl picks.

Look to any game featuring a Big-10 team for that…and beat heavy against them.

or the most part (expect for Alabama) Utah has not played quality bowl opponents.

Georgia Tech, Navy and Cal were all quality opponents and on the level of the Utes the year Utah played them. In fact, I’d wager both Georgia Tech in 2005 and Cal in 2009 were more experienced and talented than Utah.

The lone dud opponent during Kyle Whittingham’s streak has been Tulsa and that year, they weren’t much worse than Utah (who entered the game 8-5).

What you’re failing to realize is that it’s all about context. Those years Utah won bowl games outside the BCS, they were not fantastic teams. They were good teams who beat good teams.

So I do think it points to Whittingham’s success that he’s been able to go 5-0 in bowl games. They might not all be Alabama, but compared to the Utah team they faced, they’re not really bad teams.