Pac Ten expansion falling apart? (and BSU news)
If you're like me, you are probably exhausted by all these expansion rumors. For months now, we've read a whole host of news about what conference is going to do what and finally, late last week, it looked as if something was about to take place.
Of course, that was then and this is now. Did the big expansion (six Big 12 teams to the P-10) hit a snag deep in the heart of Texas?
Chip Brown of OrangeBloods (the original site to break the story) is now Tweeting Texas wants to stay in the Big 12. That's important because I think many of us were under the impression they were at the point of wanting out. If Texas is not looking for an out, it certainly would change the dynamics of this situation.
Of course, all this might hinge on Nebraska, who has openly flirted with the Big Ten. If the Cornhuskers leave for the Big Ten, you've got to think that would snowball into what was discussed last week.
On their front, Tom Osborne has hinted he wants to stay in the Big 12, but that could all be a diplomatic effort on his part. Ultimately, no one knows what Nebraska is thinking and I believe we're looking at 50/50 odds of them staying or leaving. So basically, it's a pick 'em.
Beyond that, though, it's been suggested the Big 10 would drop any expansion that includes Big 12 teams if Notre Dame accepts their invite. That would leave both Nebraska and Missouri in the Big 12 and most certainly keep the Gang of Six from departing to the Pac Ten.
But this is Notre Dame we're talking about and the Irish have shown no sign of wanting to join a conference any time soon.
So basically, what we're looking at is a mess of scenarios. They include...
- Nebraska and Missouri leave for the Big Ten. Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado or Baylor leave for the newly formed Pac Sixteen.
- Missouri leaves for the Big Ten - but Nebraska stays. This opens a slot for the Big 12 and with the North's power team still on board, the other schools from the south don't bolt. Could Utah see an invite to the B12 under this scenario? Possibly. The Pac Ten also could look at expansion to join the remainder of the BCS conferences at 12 teams (remember, the Big Ten has eleven teams, despite their name).
- Notre Dame joins the B10, which ultimately revokes its invites to Missouri & Nebraska, thus leaving the Big 12 intact.
- Nebraska and Missouri decide to stick around. The Big 12 does not collapse and the Pac Ten is back to the situation they were prior to the events last week (most certainly again looking at Utah and Colorado).
- Nothing happens. It was all smoke and mirrors and when it finally clears, college football is the same then as it is today.
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PAC 10 gave Larry Scott the green light to expand with all options on the table.
Here is how I see the flow chart:
The PAC 10’s #1 option is the Big 12 south – Baylor + Colorado. If the Texas legislature insists on Baylor they would be willing to drop Colorado.
Texas want’s their own network, which the only Big 12’s TV contract would allow. Texas wants to know what Nebraska’s plans are. If Nebraska is sticking with the Big 12 Texas will too. If Nebraska wants to go to the Big 10 the Big 12 will implode.
If Nebraska and Texas hold together the PAC 10 will liekly go to plan C, which is likely Utah and Colorado.
But if the Big 12 implodes where would Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State go? As teh Big 12 remnants they would have a BCS AQ and a tie to the Fiesta Bowl. A merger with the MWC would add a TV network to the mix and allow Utah and the MWC to finally become members of a BCS Automatic qualifying conference.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
I'm not sure on that second part
They want no part of Baylor, and really do want Colorado.
But if Texas says "Baylor or we don't go", they accept Baylor...
Especially because Baylor academically fits the conference.
I don't think so
There’s a point where it’s too much. Texas Tech and Okie State are already pushing things. Add Baylor, and lose Colorado, and the Pac 10 almost certainly walks away.
If Texas is really going, the PAC 10 would take any other 5 teams Texas wants to bring with them.
Could be IA State, New Mexico State, Montana, Idaho and LA Tech. Texas is worth the trouble. Baylor won’t be the sticking point. If Tech and Okie state are acceptable, so is Baylor.
Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.
Texas is worth some trouble
Tech or Baylor might be acceptable. Tech and Baylor, especially if it means losing Colorado (remembering that the only significant TV market pickups in this move are made by adding Texas and Colorado, and TV markets are what this is all about) … not so much.
Well . . .
Texas would bring in some 5.5 or so million monthly to a properly configured TV contract, especially if several Texas teams are in the conference. So . . .that’s a lotta cheese to sneeze at just cause it’s Baylor and not CU. CU’s media market is not bigger than Baylor’s since there are a few more Texans than Coloradoans.
But the thing is
If you add Texas, then A&M, Tech, and Baylor give you nothing additional in terms of TV revenue (and just A&M would work almost as well as just Texas). So that makes Texas worth only 1/4 of what it would be on its own.
1/4 of Texas...
is still much more than most schools in the country including CU.
The PAC 10 will do whatever it takes to get Texas. It’s just a matter of whether or not Texas wants to go.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
No
Texas brings in $120 million/yr in athletics revenue. Pretty much every school in a BCS conference brings in over $30 milliion/yr. Heck, the average in the SEC and Big Ten is over 1/2 of Texas, and even in the Big East it’s over 1/3 of Texas.
Texas is worth a lot. It is not worth bringing in three schools worth of dead weight, and losing the only other major additional market they could get.
A&M, Tech, and Baylor...
aren’t ‘dead schools’. You just said how much an average BCS school brings in, how does taht not apply to those schools as well?
Texas is easily worth bringing in those other 3 schools as well.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
at this point i now would want to goto the pac-ten even if it was their backup plan.
the mwc has been shown to be a follower and not a leader. craig thompson can’t get us to where we want to be and glory favors the bold.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. Hell is just a word, the reality is much much worse." Event Horizon". Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean, I mean plumb, mad dog mean. cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live or win. That's just the way it is. "The Outlaw Josey Wales". To protect the sheep you gotta catch the wolf, and it takes a wolf to catch a wolf. "Training Day". Rashad will beat Rua b/c it's a bad matchup for him. 2/1 odds. Josh Koscheck will dethrone Gsp and win the welterweight title. 2/1 odds on that too.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jun 9, 2010 12:54 PM MDT up reply actions
If Baylor goes and Colorado is left out?
I say we go after Houston and Colorado, dump UNLV and New Mexico, and upgrade. I’d make that trade so fast . . .
espn already has the mwc targeting colorado.
why do i get the feeling that once the first piece falls that it will be a mad scramble to see who gets who and what conferences will be stronger or weaker or maybe nonexistent.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. Hell is just a word, the reality is much much worse." Event Horizon". Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean, I mean plumb, mad dog mean. cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live or win. That's just the way it is. "The Outlaw Josey Wales". To protect the sheep you gotta catch the wolf, and it takes a wolf to catch a wolf. "Training Day". Rashad will beat Rua b/c it's a bad matchup for him. 2/1 odds. Josh Koscheck will dethrone Gsp and win the welterweight title. 2/1 odds on that too.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jun 9, 2010 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions

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