Iowa State (beat Nebraska last season)
Wyoming (gave us a hard time at Rice Eccles last season)
Air Force (always plays tough)

Pitt and TCU will be the toughest games. Pitt has two stand out guys on defense that will be rushing Jordan Wynn on every play. They return most everyone on defense. On offense, they have an exceptional WR (Jonathan Baldwin) and RB (Dion Lewis) and they have another RB who may get some carries. They will be starting a new QB who got to play a little bit last season, but probably has less game experience than Wynn. Pitt had to replace a lot of guys on their O-line which will help out the Utes.

TCU will be a very good again this year. They lost a lot of guys that were play makers (i.e. Marshall Newhouse, Joseph Turner, Ryan Christian, Nic Richmond, Jerry Hughes, Rafael Priest, Nick Sanders, Daryl Washington, Corderra Hunter…). However, they return a lot of the guys that gave us trouble last season (i.e. Antoine Hicks, Jeremy Kerley, Jimmy Young, Tank Carder, Wayne Daniels, Kelly Griffin, Tejay Johnson, Evan Frosch, A. Dalton, Marcus Cannon, Tyler Luttrell, Curtis Clay, Skye Dawson, Bart Johnson, Luke Shivers, Matthew Tucker, Ed Wesley, and a few other starters). They will be extremely deep at the WR position (at least 6 guys saw play time last season) and at TB. They took at hit at CB position losing both of their starters Priest & Sanders. Ryan Christian (WR) was very good the last few years against the Utes, so his departure will help. Joseph Turner was very good at TB, but Tucker & Wesley easily replace him. Newhouse and Washington were stars on their team last year and they are gone. Jerry Hughes created serious problems for Jordan Wynn, so it’s nice that he has left. I think that our defense will need to be prepared to stop the run (especially right through the middle), stop the QB scramble (which was used a lot last season), and cover their receivers (who will most likely be Hicks, Kerley, Young, Bart Johnson, and Clay… Skye Dawson not as likely… most throws to Hicks, Kerley, and Jimmy Young, sometimes to Clay and Johnson). Air Force, Boise State, and Clemson had success against TCU’s offense last season holding TCU to 20, 17, and 14 points respectively. Interesting note: Utah put up more points against TCU last season than any other team they played.

Wyoming loses 7 starters.

Air Force loses 12 starters (6 offense, 6 defense).

BYU loses Pitta, Hall, Unga, Tonga, and others.

Notre Dame? Have to wait to see them play the first few games.

http://irish.nbcsports.com/2010/06/spring-solutions-defensive-line.html.php

because a) they have the national rep (and winning those early games that the pundits have decided are important matters more than it should), and b) they just aren’t going to be nearly as motivated to beat you as the MWC will. I think you really need to win that one to give yourselves a cushion if/when you lose one you “shouldn’t have.”

As for ND, South Bend is a big home-field advantage, but for my part, at least, I’m just not a believer in that team. And I say that as a resident of northern Indiana who has ND season-ticket holders in his congregation. Maybe I’m overly affected by their wariness and cynicism, but if Kelly does turn that program back into a real contender, I don’t think it’s going to be an immediate boost like they saw with Ty and Weis. (Which, of course, may mean it lasts a lot longer, too.)

It will be interesting to see how Utah does against Pitt. I think we have a pretty good chance of beating them. But Utah has a tendency to be sloppy in their first game.

Breaking down the schedule I think 10-2 or 9-3 are realistic expectations. So where do the losses come from? I think Utah loses to TCU, even though it’s a home game. They got blown out last year and needed a miracle finish and help from TCU’s FG kicker to beat the Horned Frogs during the Sugar Bowl season. Right now, TCU has a third year starter, in senior QB Dalton, and always has one of the best defenses in the country. It would be an upset if the Utes won that game.

So where does another loss or two come from? The most likely possibilities come from Pitt, ND, and BYU. Out of those, I think BYU is the easiest, but it is the Holy War and is always down to the last series it seems like. BYU may have extra motivation, as well, in the form of a PAC 10 send off. But still, the Utes win simply because BYU loses all of their skill guys and their top pass rusher from last year.

Pitt will be a great game. I really could see it going either way. If Utah can’t stop the run, like they couldn’t up the middle against TCU, it will be a long game for Ute fans. Utah had four players on the defensive side of the ball get drafted last year. They’ll be tough to replace. All LBs are new starters too. We kind of know what they are going to bring, and it is talented. The question is, can we stop it?

ND is the biggest unknown. They had top 10 recruiting classes from 06-08. Those kids will now be juniors and seniors. We’ll see if the potential translates into on the field talent and wins. Their coach is like an Urban Meyer, taking off-the-radar programs and turning them into BCS teams. We’ll see if he can work magic in a big pond like Urban did at Florida. ND also has a bye the week before the Utah game, while the Utes will be recovering from TCU. And it is in South Bend.

To be honest, I could see Utah losing to both Pitt and ND, but I definitely think they could win both too. I don’t think Utah drops a game to Wyoming, Air Force, Iowa State, SDSU, or CSU, but it could happen. When Utah went 10-2 in ‘94 they beat all the ranked teams they played and were 8-0 to begin the season but lost back to back games against New Mexico and Air Force. Anything can happen. So a 9-3 season wouldn’t surprise me, nor would an 11-1. Anything more or less would be a surprise. We’ll see how things start to form as the season progresses and we know more about each opponent.