Here are the important games for Week FIVE (yes, week FIVE) for Utah. All of the top-20 matchups plus keeping an eye on Pitt and Notre Dame. Nebraska, Utah, Arizona, Arkansas and South Carolina are on bye this week. Likely to help us are in bold (I was wrong about Texas-UCLA last week, so there are likely upsets coming again):
1- #7 Florida v. #1 Alabama. Alabama wins big, we pass Florida (who has looked very average). Alabama wins tight, we don't pass UF. Florida wins big, Alabama still probably stays ahead of us. So root for Urban to get blown out.
2- #2 Ohio State v. Illinois. Upset unlikely but possible on the road. Go Illini.
3- #3 Boise v. NMSU. Upset would be great. Not happening (since NMSU is the 2nd worst team in IA, behind UNM). Moving on.
4- #9 Stanford v. #4 Oregon. Oregon winning is best for us, as it will be easier to pass Oregon than Stanford, but either team winning in a blowout will help us.
5- #5 TCU v. CSU. TCU winning is important. We control our fate vis-a-vis TCU. Go Horned Frogs.
6- #8 OU v. #21 Texas. Go Horns! With the recent UCLA upset, Texas beating OU probably doesn't advance them ahead of us (even on a bye week, when we're even more likely to get jumped). We want a close, ugly game that Texas wins, preferably on a questionable call by the officials.
7- LA Monroe v. #10 Auburn. Not happening. Moving on.
8- #11 Wisconsin v. #24 MSU. Sparty is 4-0 with Wisky. This game is lose-lose for us. MSU winning is best, but they'll probably jump us with a win. Again, close and ugly is what we want, with Sparty winning late and badly. Maybe 6 to 4 like the PSU - MSU game a few years ago.
9- Tenn v. #12 LSU. LSU has looked bad. Their offense is atrocious. I still don't think Tennessee can beat them at home. Worth watching but not likely.
10- #16 Miami v. Clemson. This one actually is primed for an upset and I think Miami losing is good for us (although they're not a huge threat, a win over clemson may vault them over us, despite the OSU loss).
11- #22 PSU v. #17 Iowa. Penn State is the team for us here. Iowa wins big and they'll jump us despite the Arizona loss. Go Nittany Lions!
12- Washington v. #18 USC. Go Huskies? Not really going to matter, USC is not a threat in the real world because they won't be in the BCS poll.
13- #19 Michigan v. Indiana. Doesn't matter, even if Indiana wins, Michigan isn't a threat for a few more weeks.
As for our OOC opponents: FIU v. Pitt (Pitt had better win) and Notre Dame v. BC (a toss up, but Notre Dame certainly can win that one)