Dr. Saturday takes an early look at Utah's 2011 season
by JazzyUte on Apr 8, 2011 3:12 AM MDT
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PrintWe're almost to the point where preseason predictions are going to dominate the next few months. With this being Utah's first year in the Pac-12, I expect more attention to be given to the Utah football program. Fair or not, often the national media tends to gloss over the non-BCS conferences and that will no longer be an issue for the Utes.
Thursday, Dr. Saturday took a look at Utah's upcoming season and had a nice breakdown of what to kind of expect.
It's worth the read. Especially since it's fairly positive - especially the best case scenario:
The passing game takes off under Chow; veteran front seven keeps the defense in the top 25 against the run; Utes take advantage of a schedule that misses and Oregon and Stanfordand brings Washington, Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA and Colorado to Salt Lake City. 9-3, Big 12 South champs, Holiday Bowl.
Though it should be noted that Utah is not in the Big 12. And if they are Pac-12 South champs, who's to say they're not good enough to upset Oregon/Stanford in the Pac-12 title game? I think it's entirely possible.
Even so, 9-3 and a trip to the Holiday Bowl (fun fact, Utah's never been to the Holiday Bowl, even though the WAC had it as its bowl tie-in for years) would be a pretty damn good start to the BCS era for the program.
So what's the worst case scenario? It's actually one that I don't think is entirely bad.
Jordan Wynn struggles, the running game stagnates behind partially rebuilt line; the entirely new secondary fails to come together; week-in/week-out grind of the Pac-12 slate is a steeper step up in class than expected. 6-6, back in the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.
6-6 wouldn't be ideal, but think about the situation they find themselves in now. In the Mountain West, the Las Vegas Bowl is the highest bowl tie-in offered by the conference. Unless you're playing for the BCS, chances are a berth to Vegas means you've won the conference.
Yet in this scenario, Utah, with a 6-6 record, is now playing in a bowl game designated, most years anyway, for the best Mountain West team.
Not bad.
Realistically, I see Utah probably coming close to the best case scenario. But the success of the season, in my view, will come down to what they do against SC, Arizona State and Arizona. Those are probably the three most important games of the season.
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Dr. Saturday posts an interesting link in his story
Utah’s record vs. conferences for the past decade. Looks like Utah is going to need to improve in their Pac 10 (now 12, of course) away game percentage (16.7%). Every other stat is pretty sparkling.
I keep accidentally eating my pets. Maybe I should get something less appetizing, like a cat instead of a Twinkie.
Sort-of-daily sort-of-funny sort-of-thoughts at danoftheday.com
Musings
Last week at work, one of my co-workers asked me how many games I think the Utes will win. When I said 8-9, he gave me a what-are-you-smoking look and like most people think that Utah will fall flat in it’s debut in the Pac-12.
I can understand that Utah will have a tougher time with the “week in and week out grind” of the new conference but who is really gonna be an absolute power next year. Sanctions aside, USC will always be a power, OSU likes to play us close and ASU can certainly surprise you but none of those teams give me the same feeling as TCU: a squad we have to play a flawless game to have a chance. The Pac-12 is gonna be tougher than the MWC but let’s be honest; it isn’t the SEC.
Now I’m not saying Utah will come out the gate and win a national championship in it’s first year. (though that WOULD be nice) they certainly have a lot of potential to be a great team in the Pac-12 South, especially since we don’t play Stanford or Oregon.
All I know is football season can’t come soon enough.
GO UTES!!
Fear the MUSS!!
Best of luck!
I mean that honestly. As of right now, I think I’ve got you guys as my favorite team (okay, least hated :) ) in the 12-Pack south.
But even though I think 9-3 is not impossible at all for you, it may take a few good breaks. What the Pac-10 has taught us all is that any team can beat any other team on any day. Well, apparently except for Cal beating either USC or OSU. But that aside, that means those “easy win” games you guys see (like Ucla, Colorado, Cal, Wazzu), may not be as easy as you think. Especially if you are the visiting team.
The difference (as I think I may have said before) is that despite SEC scorn, the Pac is strong from top to bottom. And, the conference is way faster than the MWC. And this means that at some point or two, it’s almost guaranteed that you’ll stumble. And before you know it, you’ve got three losses in conference with three games remaining.
Again, I’m not trying to insult you guys, because that 9-win season is quite possible. Just don’t be surprised if the season ends and you are trying to figure out why you’re 6-6 and got smoked by 28 points by someone like UW.
I'm thinking of having a little party down in Newport.
I think that's fair, Oski
We keep hearing from our weak BYU sisters to the south about how we’re never going to win games in the PAC12 like we did in the MWC.
Well, duh!
Of course we won’t. Any Ute with his head on straight will know that a 12-0 or 10-2 season in the MWC is more like 10-2 to 8-4 in the PAC.Maybe a “rebuilding” 7-5 year in the MWC turns to 5-7 in the PAC. But Jazzy put it well. Now 6-6 gets us to the Vegas Bowl instead of 10-2, or even a heartbreaking 11-1. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Wins will be fewer in the PAC, but they’ll mean much more.
I’m glad we’re aboard the PAC train.
by fountainofute on Apr 8, 2011 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions
You bring a fair point Oski
I’m just sick of all the naysayers saying we will fall flat because we “didn’t face real competition” in the MWC. I completely agree with your any team in the Pac10(12) can beat another one any day. We didn’t play in a division II conference,: the MWC was bottom heavy but teams like Air Force, TCU and BYU can still bring it.
I ‘m very optimistic for this year but I’m first and foremost a realist.
Fear the MUSS!!
I don't think anyone would be surprised with 6-6...
At least, from what I’ve seen posted on Block U, no Ute fan has said 6-6 is not possible.
I think we all know 6-6 is possible.
But we do have higher hopes / expectations.
I do worry because I think we have 11 out of 12 opponents on our schedule that are tough. We have never seen that level of consistent difficulty before.
We all know our team can win, but how will we hold up to that schedule.
"From the end spring new beginnings." - Pliny the Elder
by daedalus17 on Apr 9, 2011 10:23 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Really, it's anyones guess, but.....
I sure like this rugby back Palamo! He could be Wynn’s new best friend. I think Norm gives Whitt the break down on all the Pac 12 offensive tendencies (outside of CU) the Utes will be facing on D in the P-12… a huge plus going into year one with new DB’s. And, is it me or does Wynn seem to grinning from ear to ear in every picture or video I see him in??? If he and Norm are able to establish some kind of mind meld, the receiving core shows up, and the O-line can block we could be in for a fine season.
I can see a great team evolving… I can also see the floor dropping out after a two quick losses to USC & BYU. The thought makes me cringe! But, if we get past those two games with W’s sky’s the limit!
GO UTES!!
I am a Utah Man sir... I will be till I die.
Are you predicting a BYU win, or just saying it's a possibility?
I’ve seen a lot of people predicting Utah will lose to BYU, especially national writers, and I think it’s garbage. In any given year Utah’s chances are at least 50/50.
I keep accidentally eating my pets. Maybe I should get something less appetizing, like a cat instead of a Twinkie.
Sort-of-daily sort-of-funny sort-of-thoughts at danoftheday.com
Utah should beat byu
I’m just worried about USC
Go utes!
by utahman13 on Apr 10, 2011 12:57 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
As a USC fan...
we welcome the rivalry. Utah may get a few lumps this season, but you will fit in fine with the PAC12 in the years to come.
... the Fighting Wesleyans
by USChawai'ian on Apr 12, 2011 1:53 PM MDT up reply actions
agreed
not sure that the BYU game is officially over. I think we can beat those guys. They have all the hype in the world right now and if history has taught us anything, its that Bronco and Co. fall flat on their face when they have the hype.
Formerly SportsInUtah
Follow me on twitter: @BigBenSportsGuy
by BigBenSportsGuy on Apr 11, 2011 10:02 AM MDT reply actions
Here are the probable starting lineups for both teams at the time of that game:
Utah:
Offense:
OL: Cullen (2nd-year starter)
OL: Brenner (2nd-year starter)
OL: Stevens? (2nd-year starter, first at this position)
OL: ? (Pou, Asiata, Kemo, etc. lots of options, all would be new)
OL: Bergstrom (4th-year starter)
QB: Wynn (3rd-year starter)
RB: ? (whoever it is, they’ll be brand new)
TE: Moeai (3rd-year starter)
WR: Devonte (2nd-year starter)
WR: Matthews (3rd-year starter assuming he moves back, but if not then this will be Ransom)
WR: Dunn (2nd-year starter)
That’s not a bad offense, but some concerns in the middle of the line and at RB of course.
Defense:
DL: D. Kruger (3rd-year starter but at DT, not DE)
DL: Aiono (2nd-year starter)
DL: Lotuleilei (2nd-year starter)
DL: Shelby (4th-year starter)
LB: Williams (3rd-year starter)
LB: Walker or Martinez (both 2nd-year starters)
LB: Blechen (2nd-year starter but at SS, not LB)
CB: Black (first year starter)
CB: Lacy (first year starter)
S: No idea on these (could be Quaddis, Payne, Reese, Walker, or someone not even on campus like McGill. Whoever it is will be brand new, just like the rest of the secondary).
The secondary is my biggest concern. RB is a problem, but it’s solvable and there’s talent there. Secondary needs to be talented and experienced or they get burned. Hopefully the very good D-line and good LBs will be able to cover the deficiencies in the secondary.
Now for TDS (keep in mind, I don’t follow their team closely, so there’s more guessing going on here):
Offense:
OL: Reynolds (4th-year starter)
OL: ??? (will be a new starter)
OL: Brown (3rd-year starter (although mostly at guard i think)
OL: Hansen (3rd-year starter)
OL: Brown (3rd-year starter)
QB: Heaps (2nd-year starter)
RB: DiLuigi (2nd-year starter)
TE: Mahina/Holt/Friel all started a couple of games in 2010 but are basically new starters.
WR: Apo (first-year starter)
WR: Jacobson (3rd-year starter)
WR: Hoffman (2nd-year starter)
Defense:
DL: Fangpuo? (first-year starter, JUCO then USC before an injury)
DL: Fuga (3rd-year starter but hampered by injuries both years)
DL: Manumaleuna (3rd-year starter)
LB: Pendleton (3rd-year starter but was injured early 2010)
LB: Ogletree (2nd-year starter)
LB: Jorgensen (2nd-year starter)
LB: Frazier (2nd-year starter) or Van Noy (first-year starter)
DB: Buckner? (first-year starter)
DB: Eason? (first-year starter)
DB: G’Lai? (first-year starter)
DB: Uale (2nd-year starter) or Hague (first-year starter)
So I see pretty similar teams. Both have one hole on OL to replace, although BYU has more experienced returners. BYU has a decent RB in DiLuigi, but Utah’s WR corps is light years ahead of BYUs in talent and experience, and that includes TE. Utah’s DL is all returning and BYU has one hole to fill. Our LB corps is better, and similarly experienced. Our secondary is faster, but the Y has one returning starter (although he’s not very good, IMO, since he’s in the process of losing his job to a converted FB in Hague). And then there’s QB, of course. I like Wynn, but he’s been good, not great so far, and Heaps, with another year in the system may really excel.
Still, looks like a close game to me. 50-50 at least.
Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.
by displacedute on Apr 11, 2011 12:48 PM MDT up reply actions
If DiLuigi is starting, it just show's how terrible BYU Coaching is
DiLuigi is a serviceable starter. But he definitely is not the best starting option on BYU’s squad. That would be the Quesadilla Kid (Quezada).
Don’t get me wrong, DiLuigi is fine, but where he excelled mostly was as a receiver out of the backfield. Heaps won’t be as dependent on him, and will feel more comfortable with his other WR’s just like he was at the end of last year. For an actual running game, Quesadilla should be the BYU option.
From a RB perspective, I’d take any of the three frontrunners for the Ute job, over DiLuigi.
Like I said, I don't know that much about them.
DiLuigi started last year, that’s all I know. I remember we were recruiting Quezada, and I’m still bummed out he didn’t choose us, but I haven’t really seen either of them run except the USU and Utah games last year.
Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.
by displacedute on Apr 11, 2011 3:05 PM MDT up reply actions
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