An early look at the Pac-12 South
by JazzyUte on Jul 5, 2011 7:50 PM MDT
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Though we're still a couple months out from the start of the 2011 college football season, that hasn't stopped the preseason publications from releasing their predictions for the upcoming year.
I already mentioned a bit ago that there was no real consensus on where Utah will finish this upcoming season and that point has really been solidified with the more preseason magazines that have hit the market.
With that said, there is an overall general opinion shared by most predictions thus far and it's that the Utes won't fall below third in the Pac-12 South. A third place finish might not guarantee a winning season, but it probably would put Utah in the postseason, and I believe that would be the lowest tolerable output fans would accept from the Utes this season.
Anything below third, though, would most likely put them on the bad side of .500 play and for a program that hasn't suffered a losing season in nearly a decade, that would be a huge disappointment.
Regardless, some publications are more optimistic about the transition and actually pick the Utes to win the South.
The breakdown after the jump...
| Publication | TSN | Lindy | Athlon | Phil Steele | Rogers Poll | USA Today |
| Rank | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Obviously, the consensus now is forming around a third-place finish. But it seems there are two extremes: either Utah is going to win the division or finish toward the middle. It's interesting that, in all six major publications to date, not one has the Utes finishing 2nd. I'm sure that will change when more publications are released, but at the moment, we're seeing a divergence of opinions here.
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I dont think we will really have a feel for it until we are halfway through
Seriously. You always knew in the MWC that there would be the punching bags to prop you up. This year, every single game will be intriguing in my opinion. Football can’t get here soon enough…
Affectionately known on Over the Monster as "Pete"
Follow me on twitter: @BigBenSportsGuy
none of us
Know what to expect. All we know and hope is that the Utes go out and play their hearts out. That’s all I Want from them, and if they win out that will be w bonus. Just no giving up like last year
Are you sure he was safe? It looked like an out to the entire statium. Well bad call Blue.
by Alavel on Jul 6, 2011 12:42 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
Regular season has jumped off the "fun" scale
We went from a ho-hum conference sched with only 3 real contenders for the title to what I consider an NFL-like schedule where there is so much more parity and a loss one week doesn’t knock you out. Just gotta win your division to make the playoff. VERY fun and exciting every week (after the week 1 warm-up).
I think there may be some apples/oranges in the list above ...
… The Doc Sports article is clearly tilted towards the handicap of Utah “winning the south” in terms of whether or not they play in the conference championship. As such, USC is, by definition, not included in that assessment. Phil Steele, on the other hand, has counted USC in his assessment of final standings. The inclusion or exclusion of USC might explain some of the disparity in the other publications.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
That's why I didn't post it with the above list...
The others are preseason publications – this is a bit different take, though still relevant.
Pinky, can you post the links for all of the predictions?
That would make for more discussion, I think. Just a thought.
Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.
The betting men are on Utah's side (just barely).
Sports Memo’s Odds to Win the PAC 12
Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.
the odds have shifted a bit since memorial day
the following are fairly representative line that you can actually bet:
The odds have shifted a bit in the PAC 12 south with ASU generally being a co-fav or outright fav over utah.
odds to win the conference now:
Oregon +125
Furd +150
ASU +450
Utah +500
The others are roughly about +1000!
The likely reason for the shift is that UTAH is a betting underdog in 4 of their first 7 games, and likely at Cal too.
@USC +8
@BYU +2.5
vASU +2
@PITT +4
@CAL (probably) line not yet posted.
I'm really interested in what happens in the South
I think Oregon is excellent – but distracted. I think Stanford is good – but closer to the middle of the PAC than to Oregon. I really like the talent in USC and Cal. All this leads me to think that whomever emerges from the south will have a better than predicted shot at winning the first PAC 12 championship. ASU is a good bet because of their D. UA easily has the most talented O in the south, even with a whole new o-line. Utah looks balanced. USC is the wildcard – they are going to rack up a lot of South wins. Thus, whomever can knock them off among division foes ha a good shot of winning a chance at the championship game. Utah missing both Oregon and Stanford is a bonus, but probably less significant than initially assumed.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
by Gekko Mojo on Jul 9, 2011 1:58 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Stanford will be interesting to watch...
They have talent, but how much of their recent success was solely the creation of Harbaugh?
I’m not saying the transition from him to David Shaw will fail – but he’s an unknown. And there have been a few instances of programs faltering a bit when the head coach bolts for a different gig. I look at West Virginia in Bill Stewart’s first year and can’t help but wonder if Stanford is in for a similar situation – enough talent to win most games, but a letdown due to preseason hype.
Admittedly, I’m not completely familiar with Shaw and he could turn out to be a great coach who hardly misses a beat.
Then again…
Thanks Gekko
Just a reminder that the Ducks were distracted last off-season also. It will either motivate them again or cause them to commit many, many mistakes. With a newer OL it will be interesting to see.
Welcome Utes, you guys have long been my favorite OOC opponent, we seem to play you so often…
That's why odds are irrelevant right now...
The odds are going to dramatically change after the first two weeks for the remainder of the season.
Utah is currently a 2.5 dog to BYU (which isn’t bad, considering it’s on the road), but if the Cougars beat Ole Miss and Texas to open the season and Utah loses to SC, I guarantee you that will dramatically shift in the Cougars’ favor – maybe to the point where they’re double-digit favorites.
Likewise, if Utah goes on to beat the Trojans, thus covering the spread, while BYU loses to both Ole Miss & Texas, it’s likely the Utes then enter that game as a favorite.
So they’re tying the Utes’ championship odds to the odds of each game that will most certainly be dramatically different in September than they are today.
Just kinda funny how abruptly stuff like that changes.
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