Utes potential top-25 in 2012
by JazzyUte on Jan 11, 2012 10:34 PM MST
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PrintThough the '11 season is only days old, that hasn't stopped many sports pundits from predicting and projecting what will happen later this year.
For Utah, the consensus seems to be that they'll challenge USC for the Pac-12 South title.
Of course, challenge could be liberally used here and it's obvious the Trojans will enter next season as the clear favorites to win the division.
Still, even with an 8-5 season and some head-scratching defeats (the way Cal happened and Colorado), the preseason buzz is already ratcheting up.
Ted Miller, who runs the Pac-12 blog for ESPN, had this to say about Utah (ranking them 3rd overall in his '12 conference power rankings):
3. Utah: The Utes welcome back 18 starters, though replacing both offensive tackles will be a huge task this spring. The defense has a chance to be beastly. The key? Utah proved it can win eight games with poor-to-middling quarterback play. But does a healthy Jordan Wynn -- back to late 2009, early 2010 form -- mean 10 wins?
Not bad.
Utah also came in at 24th in Mike Huguenin's early top 25 and 21st in Brett McMurphy's way early preseason rankings.
Athlon lists the Utes as 'others to watch'.
So, there certainly is evidence to suggest expectations will be a bit hire for Utah in 2012 than they were in 2011.
But is it reasonable?
Not entirely.
The Utes still have a quarterback problem, at least until Jordan Wynn proves he can make it through a season healthy. That right there is enough to dampen expectations.
Even so, I think we might have seen the Utes' Pac-12 floor (6 or 7 regular season wins). Even with a struggling quarterback and a one-dimensional offense, Utah nearly won the Pac-12 South and still managed eight wins.
If Wynn can remain healthy, especially with all the talent returning on the offensive side of the ball, the Utes could certainly make some noise.
Now here's to it actually happening.
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It's hard to get excited 8 months before the first kickoff
And I’m skeptical of Jordan Wynn. Kind of fragile and uninspiring.
Go Cuse. Go Utes. Go Kings (hockey version). Go Panthers (hockey version). Go Marlins. Go Dodgers. I despise the NFL and NBA, so don't bore me.
Oh by the way
I forgot to report the real news. Syracuse University….STILL #1.
Go Cuse. Go Utes. Go Kings (hockey version). Go Panthers (hockey version). Go Marlins. Go Dodgers. I despise the NFL and NBA, so don't bore me.
by LeftCoastMan on Jan 11, 2012 11:25 PM MST up reply actions
Well I for one am excited.
I guess like Jazzy pointed out the biggest question is QB. I have faith in Jordan Wynn though. Heres to hoping he has a Brian Johnson-esque career.
I, too have faith in Jordan.
He was playing some pretty great football before he got injured against Washington. He was the one who led us to the 54-10 shellacking of BYU in Provo. He was the one who led us to the near defeat of USC in LA. If he can stay healthy (like the oft-injured Brian Johnson in 2008) we could be in for a special year.
This year will be our year to win the Pac-12 South.
We get USC and BYU at home, which is absolutely huge. Also, our potential dominant returning running game (Juan Blanco Cuatro plus 4-star JC transfer Kelvin York) should take pressure off of Wynn. We also have senior leadership. Our defense should be outstanding this upcoming season. We likely would have beaten Washington, Arizona State, Cal, and Colorado had Jordan not got injured. The timing seems right, beings that the recruiting class we landed after our undefeated 2004 season led our team to the undefeated 2008 season (with the exception of Brian Johnson who was a red-shirt senior and a freshman on the 2004 team). If everything goes to plan, the recruiting class that we landed after our 2008 undefeated team should now be on pace to lead our school to another great season in their senior years.
Beating USC?
Not going to happen. USC is probably BSC Title Game worthy.
Go Cuse. Go Utes. Go Kings (hockey version). Go Panthers (hockey version). Go Marlins. Go Dodgers. I despise the NFL and NBA, so don't bore me.
by LeftCoastMan on Jan 12, 2012 9:18 AM MST up reply actions
Anything can happen...
…on any given Thursday.
by UtesCheesehead90 on Jan 12, 2012 9:51 AM MST up reply actions 4 recs
So tired of this!
I’ve heard it from a lot of folks, nothing personal, but what is this nonsense?
We have a ton of returning starters, the best coach in the country, and an RB who is now an absolute star. We have an incredible defense with a hunger for turnovers, and the ability to turn any game into trench warfare.
Is USC the better team, with better talent? Sure. But to just give them the W is silly.
If we want to win the Pac-12, we’re going to have to beat USC. No time like the present.
by Joseph Silverzweig on Jan 12, 2012 10:35 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
So was 'Bama Title Game Worthy!!!
Ok, no guarantee and we will have to survive 4 games before that with no key personnel getting taken out. But with a week to prepare and Coach Whit at the helm I like our chances alot better than most of the rest of the Pac. (And yes, who our OC turns out to be could raise or lower my expectations).
We have a good chance to pull this off, if they don’t bring their A+ game. And its in October, it could snow and mess up their heads so bad they don’t know what to do.
So while I ain’t betting my paycheck, I am definitely pscyhed to see this. Welcome to Utah,Tommy Trojan!!! We got a surprise for you!!!!!
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Especially BYU. - Conan the Barbarian (ok, maybe he didn't say the BYU part)
Oklahoma State was title game worthy.
They lost to a Iowa State team that was down right awful. A team that talent and coaching wise is not even on par with Utah.
Really?
C’mon. Utah’s at home, Whitt is VERY good with more than a week to prepare, and Utah’s returning a ton of talent. I’d imagine the line will be less than a TD, depending on how things go the first couple of games.
Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.
by displacedute on Jan 12, 2012 1:46 PM MST up reply actions
They were BCS title game worthy in 2008 too when they lost to Oregon State...
Who, while good, was nowhere near being BCS bowl worthy – let alone BCS title worthy.
That was while being coached by Pete Carroll, who I think is a better head coach than Lane Kiffin.
Don’t be so dismissive. Will Utah win? Probably not. Can they win? Definitely.
Last year
which was 2 or 3 weeks ago, there were big question marks especially at RB.
In 2011, we discovered JW IV. All hype, glitter and gold aside, I like Mr. White as a football player and as a representative of Utah Athletics. He runs hard, is like able dude and doesn’t talk alot of rubbish.
Also coming into 2011, there were questions and unknowns about playing in a new stepped up league. Having been through the batting order once, I think we can handle Pac-12 hitters and pitchers. In football language rather than baseball vernacular, I now feel comfortable we can handle the week in and week out grind out big boy league football. I was concerned last year, but having faced the unknown, I like us in this conference. We have been to the moon and know what it takes to get back. Knowing what to expect is an important ingredient in the recipe of success and competitiveness.
Going forward, QB is a still question mark because of the glass man – Jordan Wynn. On the bright side, if Jordan Wynn goes down again, at least we know we have a back-up QB that won a bowl game. Probability wise, Jon Hays shouldn’t get any worse.
by Utah-UCLA alum on Jan 11, 2012 11:30 PM MST reply actions
We seemed to rely heavily on Jordan early in the season.
John White may have had outstanding games against Montana State and BYU, but he really didn’t become the focus of the offense until Wynn went down. Now knowing what we know about the Wolfman with the addition of a potentially amazing complementary back in Kelvin York, we should be extremely balanced on offense this upcoming season.
Exactly
I am not sure where we rank in the polls, but I feel better about our team in 2012 than I did in 2011.
by Utah-UCLA alum on Jan 11, 2012 11:54 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
How can you not be excited about our chances!?!
I fully agree on the Wynn/QB situation, and wish we had pursued Crist…and losing Chow is really bad timing…
…but other than that, I can’t think of a season that sets up for success so well. Toughest game is at home after a bye. 4 opponents having to learn new systems (probably) and adjust to their new coaches. The 3 OOC games are pretty much gimmes (sorry BYU fan…but you thought 10-3 Utah was overrated? Wait until Nelson gets exposed…).
9-3, with a trip to the Holiday Bowl is realistic, but 10-2 & Alamo Bowl is possible, and 11-1 with a trip to the Rose Bowl (with USC going to the NC), is in the realm of possibilities too.
Is it Fall yet!?!
How do you figure the Rose Bowl even at 11-1?
This assumes we lose to USC, which means we’re not in the Pac-12 Championship game (because if we beat USC, then we’d be considered for the BSC Championship Game). Wouldn’t the Pac-12 N team get in? Presumably Oregon?
Go Cuse. Go Utes. Go Kings (hockey version). Go Panthers (hockey version). Go Marlins. Go Dodgers. I despise the NFL and NBA, so don't bore me.
by LeftCoastMan on Jan 12, 2012 9:22 AM MST up reply actions
Championship Game Losing Team Not Next in line for BCS Game
Just because Oregon would be in the Championship game doesn’t mean they’d be automatically next in line. When the champion goes up, the Rose Bowl can make any selection. If Oregon has 3 or more losses, Utah would probably get the nod with only 1 loss.
If Oregon only has two losses, I think the Rose Bowl would think long and hard about them over Utah.
Yeah
By that logic, UCLA should have been in the Fiesta Bowl.
by Joseph Silverzweig on Jan 12, 2012 10:36 AM MST up reply actions
Leftcoast.
Should have been clearer about that.
by Joseph Silverzweig on Jan 12, 2012 3:41 PM MST up reply actions
Not so sure we (or any PAC12 team) would have a shot if the PAC12 champ goes the the NCG.
This seems a bit confusing. We don’t play Oregon or Stanford this year, but North dominance doesn’t matter in terms of SOS because the PAC12 rankings don’t look at that. When it comes to BCS rules, check this out this quote from the following article:
“The Big Ten and Pacific-10 champions are contractually bound to play in the Rose Bowl unless one of those teams qualifies for the national championship game.
Starting with the 2010 season and running through the 2013 season, the first time the Rose Bowl loses one of its conference champions and a team from one of the non-automatic qualifying leagues earns a BCS bid, the Rose Bowl must take that team."
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4359924
So, if I’m reading this correctly, that means that an undefeated Boise State team could be given the Rose Bowl bid before Utah, even if we were to be ranked higher in the BCS standings, as long as BSU qualifies for a bid. Of course that would likely mean we go to a different BCS game, but who knows.
nope they only had to let in one non aq in for one rose bowl
tcu did so they won’t be doing it again.
by khaostheory117 on Jan 13, 2012 12:17 AM MST up reply actions
What Khaos said ^^
From what I heard it was only supposed to be set up so that can happen once every 4 years
Makes sense. Key words: "first time."
Another source: “TCU’s appearance satisfied the ‘first time’ clause of the current agreement.” Thanks for clarifying.
It would depend on who was higher ranked...IMO...
…and if Oregon was 10-2 (presumably having lost to USC twice, they would be ranked below an 11-1 Utah.
Neither team has a stellar OOC schedule, so you couldn’t point to Oregon as having played a more difficult schedule, and they would share a common loss (USC).
I suppose MoV could play into it, but I believe the 11-1 team would be the favorite.
Doesn't that only strengthen what he said?
Michigan state lost in the championship game fell to 17 in the rankings. Michigan who didn’t earn a spot in the championship game didn’t have to deal with that extra loss and ended up 10-2 ranked 13. Went to a BCS game. Not sure what your point here was.
Did you guys engage in this same form of extreme optimism last season?
… I do expect that USC is probably not as good as Ted Miller is hyping (he loves to pick out his favored team every year – two years ago it was Oregon, last year Stanford this year USC). That said, I see questions with the LT, QB, WRs, and offensive coordinator as pretty big issues to overcome. Add to that the uncertainty of what we are going to get out of Arizona, ASU and WSU and I would think that 9-3 ought to be an aspirational goal as opposed to the baseline expectation.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
WRs?
wtf are you talking about. our WR corps is no worry of ours. biggest concern is QB and O coordinator.
by khaostheory117 on Jan 16, 2012 2:17 AM MST up reply actions
Most Utah fans thought 8-4 was realistic in 2011...
Perhaps there was a pre-season poll somewhere in the archives to back my claim up…Jazzy?
…and I know I’m a bit on the optimistic side, but I just don’t see many losses on the schedule…
The 3 OOC games are very favorable…
4 of the schools on the schedule (UCLA, ASU, Arizona, Wazzu) have brand new coaches…
I don’t see a strong enough uptick in the quality of Colorado & Oregon St. to make me feel like those are losses, even though they are both road games…
Cal is a home game, but they do feel like a toss up. I feel like our 3rd loss is either going to come from them or @ UCLA. Wazzu has me a little nervous too…I could see us dropping 2 out of 3 to those teams, along with losses to USC & @ UW.
-
…so I guess I should have said my baseline for 2012 was 8-4…but I think their is high level potential with this team. The combination of returning players and a soft schedule make me think that it’s probable to finish the season ranked in the top 10 with an 11-2 record.
I did a search and couldn't find a specific poll we did on wins and losses...
Closest was a bowl poll, though.
Most Ute fans felt the Holiday & Sun were the most likely options (56%) and 69% thought those two, or lesser bowls (or no bowl) were likely options.
So, going by that, I think the expectations were generally on the level of what we got. Had Utah defeated Colorado, they most surely would’ve been in the Alamo or Holiday Bowl, so, that doesn’t seem too extreme to predict either those games (13% said Alamo).
But most fans were generally right on.
I would say
We as a group more or less predicted the ultimate record of the Utes for this season, thinking 8 wins and a bowl game.
And honestly… ASU and Arizona are going to be rebuilding. Apart from USC, there aren’t any really good teams in the south. I think 9-3 is a perfectly fair expectation. Write off USC, figure in a Cal-type trap game, and then a close loss to one of the middle P12South teams.
Besides, what’s the point of being a fan if you aren’t ever going to be optimistic?
by Joseph Silverzweig on Jan 16, 2012 12:54 PM MST up reply actions
"Potential" Top 25?... Sure
We return all offensive starters except the tackles. With teams needing to respect Utah’s ground game, Wynn wouldn’t need to take so much pressure himself. And even if Wynn goes down, Hays will have had a full year to continue progressing. We saw what he did in the 4th Q of the Sun Bowl. Now that just needs to be the norm rather than the exception. If the QB can balance White and get the ball to play makers on the outside, it could be an extremely potent offense.
Special teams return the main pieces and should be a strength.
The defense is bringing in JC guys that should step in immediately on the line. If the ends can generate a strong pass rush, the defense will at least be equal to this year. If the ball bounces the right way, it could very well be a special year.
I can't wait!
I’m excited about the opportunities we could have in 2012. It could be a special year. With a strong running game, a stout defense, and a favorable schedule with USC at home after a bye, I’m think an 11-1 regular-season record and a Rose Bowl berth is definitely possible.
231 days until kickoff, baby!
by UtesCheesehead90 on Jan 12, 2012 9:20 AM MST reply actions
You guys are way too optimistic
I think I’ve lived in the NE way too long, with 150" of snow piled on my head, then in Southern California with 2 mile drives that take an hour. Obviously, it’s made me an old grouchy fucktard.
Go Cuse. Go Utes. Go Kings (hockey version). Go Panthers (hockey version). Go Marlins. Go Dodgers. I despise the NFL and NBA, so don't bore me.
True that. And you're looking kind of Orange.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Especially BYU. - Conan the Barbarian (ok, maybe he didn't say the BYU part)
8 win Pac-12 team + Stellar defense + 18 returning starters
That warrants a top 25 preseason ranking. 2012 will be a lot like 2011; it will all come down to quarterback play and more specifically, quarterback health. As long as Wynn can manage not getting hurt before the season starts, then they are a preseason top 25 team. There’s also a good chance to reel off some early season wins and quickly solidify that spot too.
Way Too Early to Tell
Losing the OL tackles is pretty big ( not that I’m overly sad to see Cullen go, but Bergstrom? ) but getting the rest of the injured linemen and TEs back will be nice. Questions still at QB, a new OC, still a lot of unknowns that can swing both ways.
I think the bigger statement is that even after what most Ute fans would consider a mildly disappointing season, Utah is garnering some national attention. And if Utah is getting Top 25 talk all off-season, that’s even better exposure for recruiting.
Further benefits from the PAC-12 affiliation.
Anyone else notice a distinct lack of some certain pussycats from either list?
If anyone found my snowboarding gloves after storming the field following the 2004 TDS game, I want them back!
Yes Top 25
I don’t think it is any stretch at all to rank the Utes in the pre-season top-25. That school down south ended up this season ranked and they could not beat a decent opponent. Next year is our year, 2004, 2008, 2012!!! 11-1 Rose Bow.!!!
How can the Pac12 floor be 6-7 wins
If Utah only won 4 conference games last year? I don’t think there is any Pac12 team which can say their floor is 6 wins.
I think he is talking about overall wins on the season.
I would think Oregon and USC for sure would consider 7-6 wins the floor.
I hadn't thought about it until now, but I agree with Jazzy on this
We just experienced a season in which several worst case scenarios came to fruition and the team still went to, and won, a bowl game. Of course things could always get worse – I mean, our entire defensive front could have gone down with some freak illness. But within the bounds of reason, for any given year I think there will always be 4 teams in the conference that Utah should beat plus a cupcake or two from out of conference, which puts our floor at about 6 wins. Add to this the fact that quality Pac-12 teams love to throw up themselves and lose games when they’re least expected to and I think at least 6 wins per year should be expected for this program. However, all this depends on Kyle Whittingham being at the helm :)
My bad, thanks.
Even so, you have to have a pretty weak OOC to say 6 wins is an overall floor. Even the best Pac10 programs have done worse in the not too distant past.
by ev on Jan 12, 2012 2:15 PM MST up reply actions
I think we're generally going to have a weak OOC...
This year it’s:
Northern Colorado
@ Utah State
BYU
Utah will be favored, most likely, in all three.
Utah St. could be a trap game...
…it worries me the most out of those 3.
by Middy_U on Jan 12, 2012 2:29 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Not only am I worried the most about the Aggies, but as it stands right now, IMO the Aggies are the strongest of the 3 teams, and I’m confident that’s how it will be viewed nationally by the end of 2012.
I hope they run roughshod over the depleted WAC...
Let’s see…who are they returning & who’s gone…
Turbin is just a Jr. so I assume he’s coming back?
Keeton is just a Fr. so we know he’s coming back.
Not sure about the other high level talent on USU…anyone else know more about them?
-
…and I think they’re a “trap” because they’re Utah St.
Do we really respect them more than BYU? You don’t think we could get caught looking ahead to our rival (que Colorado joke…)
Utah State is basically the first real game of the season.
To be a trap game, a weak team is nestled between two superior teams. Utah State falls between BYU and Northern Colorado. I don’t see how the best team of the bunch can be called a “trap game.”
BYU still has to be considered the better team
They played. BYU won. Do I root for USU? Yeah. Are they better? Not quite yet.
by Joseph Silverzweig on Jan 12, 2012 3:44 PM MST up reply actions
Agreed
Utah State up until now can’t seem to win the big one.
by Utah-UCLA alum on Jan 12, 2012 3:48 PM MST up reply actions
Except the Pac12 has made an agreement with the Big10
Now I’m not under an illusion the Big10 is the SEC, but it’s not bad. Utah will have to travel to a Big10 site every other year and there will be some seasons they play one of their better teams. We all know BYU is not suck forever, they win a few times. The OOC will get harder whether Utah wants it to or not. Going 3-0 isn’t a given.
by ev on Jan 12, 2012 2:34 PM MST up reply actions
...we're well aware that winning vs. lesser talent is not a given...
Colorado had to remind us though.
It doesn't matter...
Utah doesn’t need to go 3-0 to each 6 wins if they’re winning four or more conference games a season. So, even if you take a USU or BYU off the schedule and replace them with a Big Ten team, the Utes still could theoretically lose an OOC game and finish with 4 conference wins for six total. I still believe it’s the floor.
It's kind of like the whole SEC scheduling they have going on over there.
They usually have 2-3 cupcakes and maybe 1 good OOC. All a SEC team needs to do is win 3-4 conference games and they are set for a bowl game. Only 3 SEC teams failed to do it this year I believe. In a league as good as the SEC the floor could be said to be 6-7 wins.
They will change their tune when they move
to a 9 game schedule. One of those cupcakes gets taken away, it will cost them a bowl team, sometimes two.
by ev on Jan 12, 2012 9:58 PM MST up reply actions
So, I noticed Ted Miller linked to this on his blog...
And I linked to his blog in this article.
Should we expect the universe to collapse into itself?
I think people may never leave their houses again...
…as they will be stuck in an infinite loop of reading ESPN’s Pac12 Blog & BlockU.
I know I haven’t left the house yet…
seriously, the trib needs to replace lya with you.
by chester_copperpot on Jan 12, 2012 3:12 PM MST up reply actions
I'm hoping his current writing job gets him to the point where he's the main source of news on Utah sports.
Although Block U and Utezone are already where I get 99% of my Utah Utes news anyway.
Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.
by displacedute on Jan 13, 2012 12:25 PM MST up reply actions
Vortex of awesomeness
I’m counting on this infinite loop to keep me occupied until Spring practice.
Only if you now divide by Zero
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Especially BYU. - Conan the Barbarian (ok, maybe he didn't say the BYU part)
Depends on the new OC
I like the optimism and that’s what makes the off season entertaining, but I will hold my expectations/projections until the Utes hire a new OC. A lot of momentum can come from that and if we hire a solid guy, I’m ready to say the Utes should start in the Top 25. If they hire Gary Crowton, as Lya at the Trib is reporting today, I don’t think Top 25 is gonna happen.
We still have some depth issues to address before I think we're a sure thing.
We have three guys on the team, each of which is absolutely essential to having a successful season. There’s still a chance Star could declare and Wynn is anything but a sure bet. We also would lack a RB with any proven ability if JWIV went down. We’re still in trouble if we see even half of the O-line injuries we saw last year. The best case scenario of a very productive and injury free preseason puts us in place to be very serious contenders for th PAC12 South. I think we still lag far enough behind in the depth department, that injuries pose a much more serious risk to our season than the other upper eschelon teams. Keeping fingers crossed.
It's started
I have texts from tds fans rolling in like crazy…“Heard you’re considering Crowton! HAHAHA!” Sad thing is, I can’t blame them. The guy was an unmitigated disaster down there.
I heard his name floating around a few days ago...
Along with Robert Anae, Steve Kragthorpe and Mike Sanford.
Not kidding.
Crowton and now Kragthorpe?
Do we have a thing for former LSU coordinators? Also, Kragthorpe stepped down as OC at LSU due to his Parkinson’s disease, but remained on as QB coach. Interesting that he may be ready/willing to step back up to OC.
Anae would not be an awful pickup, although it’s hilarious how many BYU guys seem to be interested in jobs at Utah.
Not sure how I feel about Mike Sanford. Lukewarm at best. None of these guys really excite me.
Dolphins and sharks are natural enemies. Dolphins are like, "Quit eating us," and sharks are like, "Stop smiling all the time, you morons."
Sort-of-daily sort-of-funny sort-of-thoughts at danoftheday.com
Alphonso Marsh says he is a Ute
he said on a tweet tha he is now officially a Ute.
Yeah, we found out it was someone playin' games.
He hasn’t committed.
https://twitter.com/#!/phonzooo/status/157980761939644416
We need a list of the people that applied! How about a list of people that are interested? I have seen so many names floating around I would love to see if any are still available. It seems like we are getting late in the year with recruiting I would have though we would have someone by now. Anyone compiled a list we could see??
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