Preview review: The Mountain West

During the summer months of '06 I previewed Utah's opponents, the conference and how I thought Utah would do. In the end I realized that maybe predictions are not my strong suit, because I came off looking a bit, well, out of my mind. For whatever reason (blindly following Utah into the abyss) I just wasn't on and the final results of the 2006 season look dramatically different than my predictions.

I'm no Nostradamus and never claimed to be. And I trust that most of my readers don't come here for predictions, or at least take what I say with a grain of salt when it comes to foretelling the future. And if they think I have any credibility left in outlooks, previews and predictions prior to a down being played, well once they see how badly I do, I think their opinion will quickly change.

With all that said, today I'm going to look at how I thought the Mountain West Conference would unfold. If you were reading the blog back then, you will remember that I broke down every team's schedule, their predicted finish and how I thought their season would play out. I was close on some and damn near out of my mind on most. I guess the day I did these rankings my support of Utah shrouded my judgment more than it should have. Now we'll see if I learned anything from this when I make the 2007 predictions later this year.

In July I did my Mountain West Conference preview and now we really get to see how close I came.

Air Force

I was pretty off on Air Force's record. While they did have a losing season, as I predicted, it wasn't nearly as bad as I had predicted. I did correctly predict one victory for Air Force, a win over Army toward the end of their season. Air Force went 3-5 in conference play, defeating Wyoming, New Mexico and Colorado State (I had them as all losses). I will note though that I did discuss DeBerry retiring after the season if the Falcons struggled. And what do you know, he did exactly that. Though I'll admit, that wasn't very difficult to predict, because DeBerry was hanging by a thread at the start of the season.

Brigham Young:

This was probably my worst prediction and maybe it was because of my hatred of anything BYU. I did correctly predict losses to Arizona and Boston College, but as it turns out those were the only games BYU would drop all season. Outside of that, their victories over TCU, CSU and Utah turned out to be where I really went wrong. However I doubt there were people prior to the season that could have foreseen the Cougars winning 11 games this year and going undefeated in conference play. Yet BYU's closest conference games were against TCU, CSU and Utah -- all of whom I had beating the Cougars. So I guess I have that going for me, right?

Colorado State:

The Rams were by far the most disappointing team in the Mountain West this year. Sonny Lubick's boys are truly struggling, going 4-7, 6-6 and 4-8 the past three years. I wasn't that far off in predicting the Rams troubles, though I'll admit I couldn't have envisioned the meltdown that took place once conference season rolled around.

CSU went 4-8 this year and 1-7 in conference play. They ended the season on a 7 game losing streak, after starting the year 4-1. I pretty much pegged their final three games, though expected them to lose to Colorado and Fresno State, both teams they defeated. I also had them beating Nevada, who beat them pretty handily in Reno at the start of the season.

New Mexico:

This is probably the best prediction I made prior to the season. I had the Lobos going 7-5 (they finished 6-7) and actually had them beating Utah, which they did. I was wrong in saying they would defeat Portland State to start the season, but was correct in having them losing to Missouri, while beating UTEP. Though they lost to Air Force and Wyoming -- both predicted wins on my part -- they did finish the conference season with a 4-4 record as I had predicted. I was also correct in saying the Lobos would play in the New Mexico Bowl. Though everyone knew if New Mexico won 6 or more games they were staying home to play in the inaugural bowl game.

San Diego State:

I grossly overestimated San Diego State last season. I really thought they would surprise a few people in the Mountain West and I guess they did, as they surprised me with how poor they played. The Aztecs went 3-9 and while I did correctly predict victories over CSU, Air Force and UNLV (their only three of the season) I was way off on their other wins. Who would have thought San Diego State could lose to both San Jose State and Cal Poly? Aztecs went from a 5-7 team in '05 to a 3-9 team in '06. Though I was correct in predicting their final conference record.

TCU

I was actually pretty close with my TCU predictions. I had them losing to Tech (which was a win) and Utah (which they did). They finished the season 10-2, though I was wrong with their conference finish, as I had them beating BYU. TCU dominated the rest of their schedule once they got past Utah and finished the season ranked in the top-25 and second in the Mountain West.

UNLV:

There were some people out there that expected the Rebels to play far better in 2006 than they did in 2005. I was not one of them and actually predicted things right (mostly). UNLV struggled, winning only 2 games this year, one of which was against D1-AA Idaho State. The only wrong predictions were saying they would beat New Mexico and lose to Air Force. The Rebels ended the season with their lone conference win against the Falcons. Their 1-7 record I predicted, though mixed up that one win.

Utah

Chalk this up to me being a homer. As we now know, Utah didn't go 11-1 or 7-1 in conference play. They did lose to New Mexico, but also got beat by UCLA, Wyoming and BYU -- all of which I predicted as wins. This prediction was bad and stings because of how the season played out. I honestly thought Utah would be better than they were, but could never have imagined Brett Ratliff would take the first half of the season to find his groove. But once he did, Utah was playing just as well as I thought they should have been playing. I guess I was just premature by a few weeks in the Utes' ability.

Wyoming

Hey what do you know, I correctly predicted Wyoming's record. Though I had them beating Air Force, who they lost to and losing to Utah and New Mexico, who they beat, I was pretty close. I also had them beating Syracuse, though they lost a heart breaker to them earlier in the year. Wyoming was by far my best prediction, right along side New Mexico.

Finally, here's how I thought the Mountain West standings would look at the end of the year.

And here are the actual 2006 Mountain West standings.

*BYU: 11-2 (8-0)
*TCU: 11-2 (6-2)
*Utah: 8-5 (5-3)
Wyoming: 6-6 (5-3)
*New Mexico: 6-7 (4-4)
Air Force: 4-8 (3-5)
San Diego State: 3-9 (3-5)
Colorado State: 4-8 (1-7)
UNLV: 2-10 (1-7)

My top three were right, just in the opposite order. I had both Air Force and UNLV finishing 1-7 in conference play, but it was the other Colorado team that would join the Rebels at the bottom. I was correct in San Diego State's finish, as well as the Lobos and also correct in Wyoming's 4th place finish.

I had five MWC teams going to a bowl game, when in fact only four did (Utah, BYU, TCU and New Mexico).

I guess my predictions weren't that far off, which maybe shows that I kind of know what I'm talking about. Or maybe it's just a stroke of luck and of course I was still pretty far off on some of those predictions. Oh well, at least I'm not fully out of my mind and didn't make a complete ass out of myself -- yet anyway.

Next I will recap my preseason top-25. And here's a hint, my #1 team finished #1 in the country...but was that pre-BCS Championship game, or post-BCS Championship game? Hm, the suspense is palpable....bet you can't wait to see how that one turned out.