Statistically Speaking: Utah vs Oregon

FPI and F/+ both have the ability to generate win probabilities for individual games. With the advanced statistics more or less settled at this point, we can effectively project end of year records. These stats can give us some insight on which games the Utes need to win if they want to have a shot at the South crown (hint: it's al of them).

First, let’s take a look at the north, which Oregon has locked up. The nearest competitors are Stanford and Washington, both of whom Oregon beat like a drum. Oregon would need to lose all of its remaining games to let those teams back into it, and while Saturday’s showdown at Rice Eccles might trip them up(67.1% chance to win by FPI, 87.6% chance to win by F/+), it is a near certainty that the Ducks will take down Colorado at home (96.6%/98.6%)and Oregon State on the road (87.7%/98.3%). To win the north, the Ducks really only need to win one of those three games, so everyone else might as well make plans to head home for a visit with the family in early December.

The south is messier, because five out of the six teams are very good, in the top 28 in FPI and the top 34 in F/+. Most of the cannibalizing is done, and the team left looking like it has a clear path to Levi’s Stadium is Arizona State, both because of their success against other Pac 12 South contenders Utah and USC, and because their schedule has a soft landing, at least in conference play. The Sun Devils showdown with Notre Dame has major playoff implications, but won’t affect the conference race. The Devils look good in their conference games moving forward, going to Corvallis (69.4%/89.2%), getting the ailing Cougars at home (81.6%/97.1%), and on the road at Arizona in a game that may wind up deciding the South (39.6%/58.8%).

The Devils aren’t the only ones with a shot at the division crown, with UCLA and USC both very much in the mix, and Arizona and Utah having an outside shot if the chips fall just right. Let’s take a look at FPI and F/+, and how they predict each game moving forward.

F/+	3-6	4-5	5-4	6-3	7-2	8-1
ASU			0.1%	5.7%	42.8%	51.4%
UCLA		1.0%	10.6%	40.7%	47.7%
USC			10.0%	63.8%	26.2%
Arizona	0.3%	6.3%	36.4%	43.0%	14.0%
Utah	4.3%	28.0%	45.1%	20.7%	2.0%

FPI	3-6	4-5	5-4	6-3	7-2	8-1
ASU			3.40%	25.02%	49.15%	22.43%
UCLA		5.81%	27.87%	43.81%	22.50%
USC			7.38%	53.43%	39.18%
Arizona	0.66%	8.71%	31.66%	41.69%	17.27%
Utah	3.91%	23.75%	40.86%	25.99%	5.49%

F/+ predicts an 8-1 or 7-2 Pac 12 champ, and doesn’t predict that any teams besides UCLA and ASU have a significant shot at the championship. By this metric, ASU has a 94.2% chance of finishing with 2 or fewer conference losses. FPI’s predictions are more volatile, and tend to lean towards a 7-2 or even 6-3 South champ. Utah’s chances with F/+ are virtually nonexistent, while FPI predicts that Utah has a legitimate shot at clawing their way to 7-2, or perhaps being part of a muddled 3 loss tie for the South crown.

Both stats give ASU a solid lead, but the race isn’t over for anyone, provided that a few breaks fall their way. The Utes need the most help not because they haven’t positioned themselves well in the division, but because they are expected to lose their next two conference games. Win at least one of those games, and there are a number of paths to Levi’s Stadium.

Paths to the South Crown

If the Utes go 10-2:

If the Utes manage to upset Oregon at home and Stanford on the road, and then take care of business as favorites against Arizona and Colorado, they won’t need much to get the championship game, since they hold a tiebreaker over UCLA and the Duel in the Desert figures to be something like a coin flip.

1. Arizona defeats Arizona State (61.4%/41.2%), UCLA wins out (22.5%/47.7%), Utah wins out(2%/5.48%)

2. Arizona State loses twice more (5.7%/25.02%), the Utes win out (2%/5.48%).

If the Utes go 9-3

This scenario is more likely for the Utes. They won’t be favored against both Oregon and Stanford, although both will likely be close enough that there will be some hope to win until the last second ticks away. 9-3 against arguably the toughest schedule in the country is a great accomplishment, but it would take an extraordinary turn of events for the Utes to turn that 9-3 record into a chance to win the Pac 12.

3. Arizona State loses twice more, including at Arizona, while the Utes go 1-1 against the north juggernauts and beat Colorado and Arizona. Meanwhile, UCLA loses to either Washington or Stanford, but beats USC.

The Utes’ odds of being anything other than a spoiler in conference play have become slim after that tough loss to ASU. The paths to the championship game are difficult to navigate, and require the Sun Devils to stumble ahead of them. The biggest factor in this analysis is the Utes’ next opponent: an Oregon team that appears to have worked out the kinks and turned itself into an unstoppable force of nature. If the Utes want a realistic shot at the PAC 12 championship, they will need to find a way to do what appears to be the impossible: stopping the Ducks.

Advanced Metrics Primer- Oregon at Utah

Oregon is far and away the best team the Utes have faced all year. Their offense has been sparkling, and they bring a surprisingly efficient and resilient defense, along with an effective special teams unit. They are led by Marcus Mariota, who I suspect is some kind of meticulously engineered football robot, and they have a stud running back in Royce Freeman who, despite being only 18 years old, is 6’0", 230 pounds, and looks like this:

Oregon averages over 45 points per game (6th nationally), 7.38 yards per play (3rd), and has only turned the ball over 6 times this season (3rd). Suffice to say that the Utes will have their hands full.

F/+ rankings

FEI	Offense	Defense	Special Teams	Overall
Utah	84th	2nd	5th	10th
Oregon	2nd	36th	17th	1st

The strength against strength matchup is there, with the 2nd best units facing off, but the challenge Utah looks to have in this game is that their field position advantage is undercut by the excellent special teams pay of Oregon. The Utes’ special teams is what has allowed them to score points despite not having a very efficient offense. If they can’t start drives close to midfield, they will struggle to score.

S&P+	Offense	Defense	Overall
Utah	96th	38th	63rd
Oregon	1st	23rd	6th

S&P+ has been unfavorable to the PAC 12, but Oregon is the exception. Apart from one game against Arizona, the Ducks have been able to exert their will with impunity on opposing defenses, sticking to their game plan and racking up points. Utah continues to struggle with this metric, particularly with regard to the offense.

Behind the Line	Adj. Sack Rate	Adj. LY
Utah’s D	3rd	58th
Oregon’s O	74th	1st

An area that has been a strength for the Utes looks to be less so this week. Oregon has struggled somewhat to protect Mariota, but they have been incredibly efficient running the ball. Utah has allowed powerful offensive lines and running backs to pick up yards against them, and these stats suggest that the Oregon run game will be effective and tough to stop. Getting after Mariota will be essential; if Orchard and Dimick can play their best game and make the Ducks more one-dimensional, the Utes will have a chance to slow down the run game and stall out the Ducks.

ESPN Efficiencies

	Offense (RK)	Defense (RK)	Spc.T (RK)	Overall (RK)	FPI (RK)
Utah Last Week	2.47 (63)	9.05 (15)	6.33 (1)	17.85 (19)	14.3 (25)
Utah This Week	1.15 (69)	9.51 (14)	6.27 (1)	16.93 (23)	14.1 (26)
Oregon	24.95 (1)	-1.43 (67)	1.15 (39)	24.67 (8)	24.1 (5)

FPI give Oregon a 67% chance to win.

FPI doesn’t like the Ducks on defense or special teams in the same way that F/+ does, although an offense that’s almost four touchdowns above average makes up for it. These stats suggest that the Utes might be able to move the ball with some success against the Ducks, perhaps scoring a handful of touchdowns. Field goals probably aren’t going to do it this week, with the way the Ducks play.

Vegas and Massey

Massey has Oregon’s average ranking at 5th, while Utah slipped in many polls following their loss to ASU and is at 25th. Vegas has been vacillating, opening the line up at -8 for the Ducks, and getting as far up as -10 before dropping back down. Oregon has consistently been favored by more than a touchdown, however.

Stat-Head Prediction

The Sunday after the Ducks fell to Arizona, this felt like a winnable game. The Utes offense was looking strong, Oregon looked vulnerable, and they were coming up on the hill. In the light of the entire season, however, the Ducks look as complete and potent as they ever have. If anyone in the PAC 12 can take down this Ducks squad when they are at their best, it’s the Utes. Defensive line play can frustrate and disrupt even the most efficient offense, and the Ducks' D has occasional lapses in focus that allow for explosive plays. The Utes’ offense hit a new low last week, but it’s a low they should bounce back from, as they adjust to life without Dres Anderson and return to the friendly confines of Rice Eccles.

Mark Helfrich’s squad is really, really good. I can’t see a number that justifies picking the Utes this week. The Utes will have to find another way to have a shot at the South Crown.

33-17 Oregon