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Jakob Poeltl should stay in college

Generally speaking, if a player is projected in the upper half of the NBA draft, he should leave college. The reasoning behind that largely follows the assumption that you are leaving money on the table that you will never get back, which is often true; the risk of injury and the potential of increasing your draft spot largely offset each other. This year and next year, however, are rather different in the NBA, and as such, Jakob Poeltl will make more money by staying in college another year.

As strange as that sounds, the new TV contract next year puts this year's rookies in a weird place. The salary cap is expected to jump from $66million this year to $88-90million next year. That's a 36.4% increase (i.e., huge). Assuming that increase is divvied up at the same ratio under the new CBA as it is under the current one (which it won't be, but it will most likely be similar), that means Jakob will likely make A LOT more money by staying in college one more year, even if he doesn't improve his draft standing at all.

This year's rookie salary at pick No. 11:

Year 1 - $1,898,300

Year 2 -$1,983,700

Year 3 - $2,069,200

Year 4 (option) - $2,745,828

2nd contract qualifying offer - $3,759,038 per year (3 year total - $11,277,114; 4 year total - $15,036,152)

8-year total (with option & 4-year second deal):

$23,733,180

Next year's salary projection at pick No. 11 (projections based on 36.4% increase):

Year 1 - $2,589,251

Year 2 - $2,705,767

Year 3 - $2,822,389

Year 4 (option) - $3,745,309

2nd contract qualifying offer - $5,127,328 per year (3 year total - $15,381984; 4 year total - $20,509,312)

8-year total (with option & 4-year second deal):

$32,372,028

That means that even after accounting for the $1.9million Jakob is leaving on the table over the next twelve months, he still figures to make $6,740,548 more over his first two NBA contracts, or an average of $842,568/year. The risk of injury is real, but with a higher projected draft position, Jakob can likely get an insurance policy (for which the school is allowed to pay) to protect himself financially in that instance. Add in the prospect of potentially drafting higher with the lower number of big men expected to come out next year, and financially it makes just about zero sense for Jakob to come out this year (or just about any other underclassman in the NCAA right now). I'm hoping Jakob realizes this as well.

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