Block U Pac-12 Power Poll Week 6

Another week is in the books, and things are shaking up a little bit. The Utes continue their ascent in our rankings, and USC has taken a bit of hit after losing to Wazzu. On the subject of Wazzu, who would have thunk years ago they’d be one of the best teams in the entire league? It’ll be interesting to see how USC progresses, especially considering all of their injuries that are pilling up.

Here are our rankings:

Overall Rankings

1. Washington
2. Washington State
3. USC
4. Utah
5. Stanford
6. Oregon
7. UCLA
8. Colorado
9. Cal
10. Arizona State
11. Arizona
12. Oregon State

Brittany’s Ballot

1. Washington
2. Washington State
3. USC
4. Stanford
5. Utah
6. Oregon
7. UCLA
8. Colorado
9. Cal
10. Arizona State
11. Arizona
12. Oregon State

Neel’s Ballot

1. Washington
2. Washington State
3. USC
4. Oregon
5. Stanford
6. UCLA
7. Utah
8. Colorado
9. Cal
10. Arizona State
11. Arizona
12. Oregon State

Alex’s Ballot

1. Washington
2. Washington State
3. Utah
4. USC
5. Stanford
6. Arizona State
7. Oregon
8. UCLA
9. Colorado
10. Cal
11. Arizona
12. Oregon State

Shane’s Ballot

1. Washington
2. Washington State
3. Utah
4. USC
5. Stanford
6. Oregon
7. UCLA
8. Colorado
9. Cal
10. Arizona State
11. Arizona
12. Oregon State

YeOldeJimmy’s Ballot and breakdown

Welcome to another week of the WOW-POWR rankings! It seems that this system is doing a good job of rating the team most likely to lose as this is the 3rd week in a row where the top team from the previous week has lost (look out, Washington). Rules can be found in last week's post (here), and clarification on the method is included in the comments of the article. Let's get to it:

1) Washington (5-0) - 3 P5 wins (WOW%: 33%), 1 G5 win (50%), 1 FCS win (60%); the new king, undefeated with 3 P5 wins gives the edge of WSU

2) Washington State (5-0) - 2 P5 wins (50%), 2 G5 wins (22%), 1 FCS win (25%); the kingmaker, only 2 P5 wins keeps them below Washington

3) Utah (4-0) - 1 P5 win (50%), 2 G5 wins (18%), 1 FCS win (20%); won the bye week in the coaches poll, but stayed neutral in the AP and in these ratings, as well

4) USC (4-1) - 3 P5 wins (57%), 1 G5 win (60%), 1 P5 loss [LOW%: 100%]; uncharacteristic sloppy game from Darnold demotes the Trojans from the very top to the less-distinguished top of the teams with 1 or more loss thanks to their 3 P5 wins

5) Oregon (4-1) - 2 P5 wins (60%), 1 G5 win (60%), 1 FCS win (50%), 1 P5 loss [40%]; good bounce-back win against Cal keeps them above the 2 loss teams

6) Stanford (3-2) - 2 P5 wins (50%), 1 G5 win (20%), 1 P5 loss [80%], 1 G5 loss [100%]; with a win, still finished behind UCLA in these ratings because of lower WOW%, but gains the edge once again because of their head-to=head win

7) UCLA (3-2) - 2 P5 wins (70%), 1 G5 win (40%), 1 P5 loss [60%], 1 G5 loss [75%]; climbed back from a low rating with a good win, but still is held down by Stanford's tie-breaking supremacy

8) Cal (3-2) - 2 P5 wins (33%), 1 FCS win (80%), 2 P5 losses [80%]; Cal's fall from grace continued with their second straight loss and their wins losing luster with losses of their own

9) Colorado (3-2) - 2 G5 wins (40%), 1 FCS win (50%), 2 P5 losses [80%]; no P5 wins is not something the Buffs will be proud of

10) Arizona (2-2) - 1 G5 win (0%), 1 FCS win (50%), 1 P5 loss [100%], 1 G5 loss [75%]; a winner of the bye week as ASU's overall win% dipped below 50%, not much else to be proud of in Tucson

11) Arizona State (2-3) - 1 P5 win (80%), 1 G5 win (40%), 2 P5 losses [67%], 1 G5 loss [100%]; a good win over Oregon can't offset too many losses

12) Oregon State (1-4) - 1 FCS win (0%), 3 P5 losses [93%], 1 G5 loss [60%]; I'm happy for OSU not being winless, but that one win is as far from notable as it gets

From the ratings graph, we see that both Washington schools have made a steady climb up the rankings, with WSU's having a much greater magnitude. Stanford and UCLA have been intertwined the last two weeks. Colorado and Cal are on downward spirals with consecutive losses.

I've added another figure that is a season-to-date composite average ranking for every team so far in the ratings. The error bars are standard error (since more games played will better establish where a team really belongs). From the chart we see that Cal, UCLA, and WSU are the biggest movers from week to week. We sort of see a top tier (USC and Wash) and middle tier (Oregon, UCLA, Utah, and WSU) developing, so it will be interesting to see how these rankings end up.