FanPost

Ratings vs Efficiency: I nailed it!

I gotta start out with a little brag. Last week I put a guess out to the world that Utah would win 49-3 and Huntley would have nearly 400 yards of passing. Well, He only had 335, but it was a decent guess I think. I’m feeling shutout against Arizona this week. 42, or maybe even 49 again for Utah. The shutout due to Khalil Tate having to scramble all night long, though that could get the best of Utah as they seem to struggle when the QB gets moving, and Khalil Tate is known more for his legs than his arm. How about some numbers?

CFP Rank

Team

Efficiency

Difference

1

LSU

4

-3

2

Ohio State

1

1

3

Clemson

2

1

4

Georgia

6

-2

5

Alabama

3

2

6

Oregon

12

-6

7

Utah

5

2

8

Penn State

8

0

9

Oklahoma

9

0

10

Minnesota

19

-9

11

Florida

10

1

12

Wisconsin

7

5

13

Michigan

14

-1

14

Baylor

18

-4

15

Auburn

11

4

16

Notre Dame

13

3

17

Iowa

15

2

18

Memphis

21

-3

19

Cincinnati

29

-10

20

Boise State

33

-13

21

Oklahoma State

23

-2

22

Iowa State

27

-5

23

USC

20

3

24

Appalachian State

28

-4

25

SMU

36

-11

Alright, I’m gonna run through this part quick, cause I want to talk other stuff at the end. Three most overrated, all G5, none ranked higher than 19. Boise State (thank you smurf turf for the pub) comes in as most overrated. Next is SMU, no real brand there. And third is Cincinnati, which I did finally spell correctly on my first try. The thing all these teams have that most don’t, a great record. Those wins are the biggest factor at the end of the day.

The four most underrated teams this week include a Pac-12 team jumping into the rankings. That would be USC who is tied with Notre Dame as the third most underrated teams. Interesting pairing there. Could be quite possible their rankings were swapped if USC had won. Underrated is rather relative as their rating is only 3 spots higher than their ranking. Then you got Auburn - please beat Alabama this week - and Wisconsin.

The goldilocks zone includes a few more teams this week, a total of 9. These teams coming in at + or - 2 on ranking vs. rating. Not gonna list em this time, check the list, they are in light yellow. It does include Utah by the way. More on that later.

Two gold stars go to Penn State and Oklahoma. Ranked right where you should be, in my opinion, though I’ve read a few things that would disagree. I just call em as I like to see em, just like everyone else.

Alright, the awesome development this week, is Utah didn’t get a gold star. Woo hoo! They actually have a rating that is 2 spots higher than their ranking. Woo hoo! That means they moved up 2 spots due to their stellar performance against UCLA. The offense crept up over 80 for the first time this season. I’ve been waiting for that one to happen. But the defense has stagnated around 88-89. It is an amazing number mind you, but I would love to see it go over 90 before the end of the season.

The closer we get to the end of the season, and the more one loss teams there are, the greater the debate is of who deserves to be in. This is not meant to be a debate, just some hypotheticals. IF Utah wins the next two weeks and meets up with Oregon (inject opinion now) I think Utah handles them easier than Washington. Here are the why’s.

1- Oregon and Washington are playing nearly equally efficient football right now, though Oregon does take the lead being rated 12 vs. Washington’s 17. Remember Utah is 5. 6 points better on offense, 10 on defense.

2- Oregon does not have a bye to get extra prep/rest time.

3- Game at a neutral site. Not a big believer in how this sways the game, just the refs.

IF Utah ends up here, it should be a fun game either way. And considering there is a high chance of the loser smelling roses, it will be even more fun.

K, next if.

IF Utah then manages to win the conference championship game over a 5th or sixth ranked Oregon, and IF that happens to be enough to get them into the CFP, I really hope LSU stays in first place. Utah would stand the best chance at getting to the championship game against them. I think Ohio State is going to win all the games this year. They have been incredible. Clemson… well I think Utah’s defense would give Clemson’s offense the toughest test of their season, but the Clemson defense would prove to be too much for Utah’s offense. So, win out LSU, Ohio State and Clemson. Take the 1, 2, and 3 spots respectively. Then if, IF, Utah ends up there, I think they could end up losing to Ohio State in the championship game, which ain’t too bad.

GO UTES!!!

PS - Boo Alabama and Georgia! Go Auburn, USC and Washington! Oh, and I think the Big 12 gets left out. Especially if Baylor gets a come back of their own against the Sooners.